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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MALLAVARPU saanvi	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
2	ELSTON Sophia	-	-	6%	33%	61%
3	NGUYEN Ella	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
3	FRANGER Macy	-	2%	15%	36%	37%	10%
5	XIONG Angelica	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
6	BECKMAN Ana	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
7	JIANG Serena	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
8	SCHMITT Harper	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
9	SWENSON Nikita G.	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
10	ELTERMAN Kate	1%	25%	44%	25%	5%	-
11	READ Lyla	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	2%
12	TANG Elaine	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	1%
13	XU Serena	-	1%	11%	37%	41%	9%
14	NELSON Grace E.	13%	39%	36%	11%	1%
15	STERN Savannah	1%	19%	41%	30%	8%	1%
16	IYER Ishana	1%	10%	35%	44%	10%
17	ZHAO Alina	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
18	XU Jessica	2%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
19	AWALEGAONKAR Saina	8%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
20	BARTOSZUK Camilla	2%	14%	36%	35%	13%	1%
21	MARZOUK Hafsa	20%	39%	29%	10%	1%	-
22	CHUANG Ramona	-	11%	35%	38%	14%	2%
23	BO GENESIS	21%	44%	29%	6%	-
24	BARANOSKI CHLOE	-	8%	31%	41%	18%	2%
25	PETROFF Eva	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
26	MCKENNA Analise	1%	25%	43%	25%	5%	-
27	VARAN Kateryna	19%	43%	30%	7%	-
28	HULL Ilsa	29%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
29	MIRZA Annoshae	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	1%
30	CHAN Macie	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
31	SMITH Stephanie	84%	15%	1%	-	-	-
32	EL BISSATI Salma	28%	47%	21%	4%	-	-
33	TANG Ellen	2%	26%	44%	24%	4%	-
34	GREGORSKI Kai	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-
35	PARK elli	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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