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Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC / RCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Friday, September 29, 2023 at 12:30 PM

Golisano Training Center at Nazareth University - Rochester, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	WONG Jackson	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
2	GULCHIN Mark (Yerma)	-	-	4%	19%	42%	36%
3	ZENG Rick	-	6%	31%	47%	16%
3	BAI Brian	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
5	CHEN Ethan	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
6	GUTH Joseph	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	18%
7	BOURGUIGNAT James	12%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
8	CHEN Kyle P.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
9	VOLLMER Quintin	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
10	CHENG Logan	-	1%	8%	29%	44%	18%
11	BERNARD Cohen	2%	12%	31%	36%	18%	3%
12	GAO Andrew	18%	48%	28%	5%	-
13	HUANG Chenghan	7%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
14	XIE Jicheng	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-
15	YIN Zixin(Gavin)	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
16	TANG Royce	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
17	SUN Henry	5%	25%	38%	25%	7%	1%
18	ABRAMKIN Tim	48%	41%	10%	1%	-
19	BELCHAMBER Mason	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
20	LAMBERT Parker	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
21	REN Ryan	24%	43%	25%	7%	1%	-
22	WONG Jacob W.	2%	20%	47%	27%	4%
23	LI Evan	8%	42%	38%	11%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.