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The Great Pumpkin

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 11:30 AM

Stoccata Fencing Academy and Club - Altamonte Springs, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	KYPRAIOS Nicholas	-	-	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
2	PROVATAS Eustratios	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
3	LEWIS Jared	-	-	-	-	5%	44%	50%
3	DAVIS Jonah	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
5	ARTHUR Greg	-	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
6	FREY Wayne	-	-	-	1%	16%	52%	30%
7	OZTEK Muzaffer Tonguc	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
8	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	17%	3%
9	KUROSWISKI Andre	-	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
10	DAVIS Kelly	1%	7%	24%	36%	24%	7%	1%	-
11	GUPTA Aarav	1%	7%	30%	44%	17%	1%	-
12	DAVIS Elisabeth	11%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
13	VENZON Gavin	-	4%	20%	42%	32%	2%	-
14	BRIDGES Brayden	17%	50%	28%	5%	-	-	-
15	MCFARLAND John	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
16	TUCKER David	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%	-
17	SCHIFFHAUER Bram	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-	-	-
18	SARMIENTO Astrid	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
19	LOPEZ Justin	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
20	RIZZOLO Chris	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-	-	-
21	DAVIS Shanna	8%	40%	44%	8%	-	-	-
22	SAINT-LOUIS Sabina	19%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.