The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Div I-A Men's Épée

Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 BIDA Sergey - - - - 3% 24% 72%
2 CARRIER Gabriel A. - - - 3% 16% 41% 39%
3 MA Victor - 1% 6% 20% 35% 30% 9%
3 ZHENG Haoran - - - 4% 18% 43% 35%
5 CUMMINGS Atticus C. - - 3% 16% 35% 34% 11%
6 YAMASAKI Kyle A. - - - 1% 12% 43% 44%
7 GALLO James - - 4% 19% 40% 32% 5%
8 LIU Andrew - 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6%
9 KIM Benjamin I. - - 1% 5% 20% 42% 32%
10 HABIB Farooq - - - - 4% 29% 66%
11 PARKER Isaiah 4% 21% 39% 27% 8% 1% -
12 SISINNI Riccardo - - - 4% 20% 43% 32%
13 VILLALOBOSKOWALSKI Demetrious C. - 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2%
14 LIU Noah 8% 26% 35% 23% 7% 1% -
15 LIU Yikun 1% 6% 21% 35% 27% 9% 1%
16 TANG William 5% 21% 35% 28% 10% 1% -
17 CASTELLY Luke - 1% 6% 25% 42% 22% 3%
18 BOYCE Samuel H. - - - 3% 17% 42% 38%
19 SUVOROV Yuly - - 1% 8% 27% 42% 21%
20 KIM Sullivan - 1% 6% 21% 37% 29% 7%
21 WONG KEVIN - - - 3% 20% 46% 30%
22 KIM Dylan J. - - 1% 7% 27% 45% 20%
23 LI Patrick - - 2% 13% 33% 37% 15%
24 JIN Nicholas - - 3% 14% 34% 36% 14%
25 ISAAC Mena - - 1% 9% 30% 43% 17%
26 WATT Darren - - - 4% 23% 46% 26%
27 SMITH Justin C. - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 23%
28 JU Hanul - 1% 7% 27% 41% 20% 3%
29 GIOVAGNOLI Nolan 1% 8% 26% 37% 22% 5% -
30 YU Austin - 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2%
31 MCADOO Declan - 4% 20% 36% 29% 10% 1%
32 SHIRLEY Kai 2% 25% 41% 25% 6% 1% -
33 CHIRASHNYA Adam - 1% 11% 33% 39% 14% 1%
34 MCALISTER Ian - - 5% 22% 39% 28% 5%
35 NICHOLSON Dimitri E. - - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
36 WELDON Benjamin - - 2% 13% 35% 37% 12%
37 BENACK Steven M. - - - 1% 8% 35% 56%
38 CANNAERT Ethan 1% 7% 28% 38% 21% 5% -
39 STRAUSS Luke - 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4%
39 SINHA Zaan 1% 8% 26% 37% 22% 5% -
41 WRIGHT Christopher - - 1% 7% 30% 45% 18%
42 ZHANG Alec - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
43 CHIEN Zachary M. - 1% 5% 20% 37% 30% 8%
44 MIAO KUNQI 1% 8% 25% 36% 23% 7% 1%
45 ERLIKHMAN Adrian 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
46 DAO Alexander 1% 9% 27% 35% 21% 6% -
47 JAIN Samyak 18% 40% 30% 10% 1% - -
48 WISHART Eric 4% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2% -
49 RICHARD silas 1% 10% 29% 35% 20% 5% -
50 ALLEN Graham - - - 2% 14% 44% 41%
51 MAYCHROWITZ Matt 1% 8% 27% 35% 22% 6% 1%
51 CHOI Kaiden I. - 5% 18% 35% 31% 10% 1%
53 PAK Elliot - 2% 14% 35% 35% 13% 1%
54 TIEN Jabin - 5% 21% 37% 28% 8% 1%
55 NICHOLSON Dominic A. - 1% 10% 31% 39% 17% 2%
56 NG Biwon 9% 34% 36% 16% 3% - -
57 HELGE James R. - 1% 7% 24% 39% 26% 3%
58 ZHUANG William 7% 30% 37% 20% 5% 1% -
59 SIM Ian 27% 46% 22% 5% - - -
60 KUO Rylan 6% 24% 35% 25% 9% 1% -
61 OBERDERFER Vladimir - 6% 27% 42% 21% 4% -
62 TONG Samuel 7% 28% 37% 22% 6% 1% -
63 SEO Shawn - 3% 16% 35% 33% 12% 1%
64 GENCHEV Madav 21% 42% 28% 8% 1% - -
65 ELZAYN Hadi S. - 2% 12% 31% 35% 16% 2%
66 LI Yunji (Rain) 2% 18% 41% 30% 8% 1% -
67 ZAYDMAN David M. - 1% 9% 25% 36% 23% 5%
68 RAHMAN Yousef 2% 18% 38% 31% 10% 1% -
69 FERRIERE Joshua 4% 20% 37% 28% 10% 1% -
69 YUEN Nathan 8% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% -
71 KAUFMAN Joel H. - 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
72 DU Daniel 12% 44% 34% 9% 1% - -
73 DANIELS Jonah - 4% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2%
74 SIRBU Dan 1% 10% 29% 35% 20% 5% -
75 SALZER Scott 18% 41% 30% 9% 1% - -
76 LOMIO Nicholas A. 18% 43% 29% 8% 1% - -
77 LEE Bryson 2% 24% 42% 26% 6% 1% -
78 ANDERSON Kai 19% 40% 30% 10% 1% - -
79 WONG Preston 44% 42% 12% 2% - - -
80 CUMMINGS Kai - 6% 26% 40% 23% 5% -
81 LI zerong 32% 44% 20% 4% - - -
82 CHAKRAVARTHY Arjun 2% 21% 40% 29% 8% 1% -
82 HUANG Tony 1% 5% 18% 31% 29% 14% 3%
84 GU Aidan 8% 29% 36% 20% 5% 1% -
85 WACHS Bryce 59% 34% 7% 1% - - -
86 REED David 3% 21% 40% 28% 8% 1% -
87 CHAO Warren 7% 30% 37% 20% 5% 1% -
88 LAI Alexander 19% 40% 30% 10% 2% - -
89 CHENG Trevor 36% 42% 18% 4% - - -
90 BECK Brian C. 2% 12% 31% 34% 17% 4% -
91 MARIANI Lou - 1% 9% 27% 37% 21% 5%
92 MORETTI David 40% 41% 16% 3% - - -
93 KNUDSEN Travis - 4% 20% 37% 28% 9% 1%
94 CHEN Steve 1% 8% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1%
94 MCNAMARA Scott 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
96 FERRIERE Thomas 13% 34% 34% 16% 4% - -
96 ROBINSON Samuel 34% 42% 19% 4% - - -
98 BELL Michael S. 5% 23% 38% 26% 8% 1% -
99 KIM Ian 1% 8% 23% 34% 25% 8% 1%
100 LAURSEN Logan 17% 45% 28% 8% 1% - -
101 NGUYEN Grayson 14% 37% 34% 12% 2% - -
102 ZANKOWSKI Brendan 32% 46% 19% 3% - - -
102 CHAUDHURI Kabir 74% 23% 3% - - - -
104 ZHAO Colin 53% 38% 8% 1% - - -
105 MITCHEM Paolo 35% 42% 19% 4% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.