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Y-12 Men's Saber

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SRIVATS Vedh	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
2	TAYCHER Aaron	-	-	1%	11%	41%	46%
3	MERMEGAS Alexander	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
3	ZHAO Royce	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
5	DAI Zihou	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
5	SONG Aidan	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
7	MIAO Heqi	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
8	CHANG Timothy	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	11%	1%
9	TITOV Zachary	-	1%	10%	36%	43%	10%
10	CHAN Ewan	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
11	LAU Kyrus	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	9%
12	CUSSON William	6%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
13	MHLEY Gavin	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	3%
14	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
15	BROOKS Drake	1%	10%	33%	41%	14%	1%
16	ULYSSE Jacob	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
17	LEE Blake	-	1%	9%	31%	44%	15%
18	SO Morgan	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
19	KARAVAS Nicholas	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
20	FOUX Jonathan	2%	13%	30%	32%	18%	5%	-
21	WANG Harrison	9%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-
22	HOWARTH Hayes	1%	19%	42%	30%	7%	-
23	LEIGH Brayden	2%	13%	35%	36%	12%	1%
24	BURENKOV Matthew	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
25	LEE Jason	7%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
26	AVERY Marcus	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%
27	WAXLER Alex	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
28	EARLEY Jack	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
29	VISH Manyu	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
30	OGELE Joshua	1%	11%	34%	38%	15%	1%
31	SHAPIRO Leo	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%
32	ALLEN Parker	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
33	LI Jayden	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
34	DATTILIO Aidan	4%	24%	41%	25%	6%	-
35	TANJGA Luka	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
36	KIM Mason	5%	33%	42%	18%	2%	-
37	YAO John	29%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
38	VITALE Mateo	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
39	SEARS Max	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
40	FIROOZI Alex	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
41	O'KEEFE Brody	10%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-
42	HAGN Maximilian	< 1%	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	3%
43	BALBALE Zayd	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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