The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Escrime d'Halloween RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 8:30 AM

The Edge Sports and Arts Academy - None

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
2	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
3	LU Alex	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
5	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	27%	7%
6	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	5%	35%	60%
7	LIU Yinhong	1%	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
8	SUN Henry	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
9	MANDZY Theodor	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
10	HICKEY Connor	-	-	3%	25%	55%	17%
11	KIM Daniel	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
12	KNIBBE Nathan	1%	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%
13	KUE Temujin	-	-	4%	19%	40%	30%	7%
14	FRASER Rhys	2%	16%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
15	LATORRE Leonardo	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	3%
16	ZHAO Nathan	-	-	2%	14%	41%	44%
17	MASSIMINO Andrew	-	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	12%
18	BILLIET Greyson	13%	43%	37%	7%	-	-
19	TURNER Jackson	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
20	GE Felix Fei	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%
21	ZHENG Marcus	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	16%	2%
22	DHOKTE Neev	-	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	5%
23	TAN Charlie	-	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
24	TARCHICHI Robby	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
25	LIM-SEIWERT Tristan	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
25	ZMUDA Aiden	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
27	MOLDOVEANU Roman	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
28	FANG Haoyu	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
29	HAN Ethan	-	4%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
30	MCGRATH Milo	20%	46%	27%	7%	1%	-
31	KAGAN Noah	-	2%	15%	53%	27%	3%
32	WENGER Liam	5%	26%	39%	24%	5%	1%	-
33	DEPP Edward	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
34	GREULICH Nikolas	38%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
35	FRASER Alistair	17%	46%	33%	4%	-	-
36	WENGER Rowan	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
37	MANESS Kellen	1%	14%	37%	35%	12%	1%
38	KIM Yoonsoo	5%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
39	TAGORE Reyansh	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
40	DELA CRUZ Lorenzo	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
41	CALESHU Bauer	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
41	TAGORE Ayansh	37%	45%	16%	1%	-	-
43	ASTORGA J.GABRIEL	1%	11%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
44	RITTER Nathan D.	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
45	VAN RAALTEN Harry	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
45	DENG Albert	4%	35%	39%	18%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.