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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUMPRICH Joe P.	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
2	HINDS David E.	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
3	PRICE Owen	-	-	-	13%	42%	37%	8%
3	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	-	3%	14%	31%	35%	16%
5	MOORHOUSE Emmett	-	-	-	7%	35%	49%	10%
6	AZIZI Zahl	-	1%	9%	35%	37%	15%	2%
7	SOPHRONIUS Jeddie	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
8	REEDER Nicholas W.	-	4%	20%	42%	30%	3%
9	LEE Ethan	-	-	4%	38%	41%	15%	2%
10	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	-	-	3%	18%	41%	30%	7%
11	CARTER Austin L.	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
12	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
13	MITCHELL Christopher	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
14	DAVIS Jack	-	3%	20%	41%	30%	6%
15	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	1%	21%	46%	28%	4%	-
16	RAUSCHER Ryan	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	4%
17	IVATURI Sivakrishna	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
18	PISTONE Leah	6%	38%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
19	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%	1%
20	LAU-ALLEN Macy	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
21	INGLE Kate	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	11%	1%
22	DEVINNEY Dale	2%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
23	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	-	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
24	BAILEY Linwood	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-
25	RYAN Sean	9%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-
26	LEE Hans	-	1%	10%	50%	32%	6%	-
27	EDELMAN Catherine	21%	50%	25%	4%	-	-	-
28	WHITE Myles	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%	-
29	ROUNTREE Andrew	8%	31%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
30	LEE Sophia	12%	42%	39%	7%	-	-	-
31	GIBSON Karino	33%	45%	19%	2%	-	-	-
32	KASPER Lucia	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
33	BAYLESS Varnum	4%	23%	40%	27%	5%	-
34	ALLEN Lily	22%	45%	28%	5%	-	-	-
35	NALLA Sai Krishna	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
36	SALAM Siam	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
37	STEFFENSEN Lily	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
38	ETIKYALA NIKHILA	18%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
39	WILLIAMS Morgan	15%	44%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
40	TOMHAVE Aidan	3%	26%	48%	21%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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