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Junior Women's Épée

Friday, December 8, 2023 at 4:00 PM

The Fencing Center of San Jose - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CAMAMA Tessa	-	1%	6%	28%	47%	18%
2	AIRES Julia	-	2%	14%	38%	38%	10%
3	CHANG Celine A.	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
3	BURICEA Ada	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
5	DUONG Zoey	-	1%	15%	39%	35%	9%
5	LAI Amanda	-	4%	27%	42%	23%	4%
7	LIN Isabel	1%	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%
8	CHIRASHNYA Mika	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
9	SCANLAN Claire	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
10	YIN Gabriela	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	15%	3%
11	LIANG Jingjing	-	-	-	3%	16%	40%	41%
12	ZHEREBCHEVSKA Veronika	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
13	DALEY Keira	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
14	COHEN Shaina	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
15	CHANG Abigail	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
16	LEE Valerie	22%	39%	27%	10%	2%	-	-
17	BROWN Riley	-	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	4%
18	WANG Jessie	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
19	BHATT Anisha	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	7%
20	MARTYNOVA Diana	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
21	BROCKMANN Brooke	-	6%	25%	38%	25%	5%
22	POON Desiree	-	5%	27%	42%	22%	3%
23	DAYAL Saahira	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
24	YUNG Bethany	4%	21%	38%	27%	9%	1%
25	CHA Eugenie	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
26	BLANCO Ariia	2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1%
27	LEE Emily	1%	12%	35%	38%	13%	1%
28	SIMHADRI Sanjana	15%	51%	28%	6%	-	-
29	PATTERSON Liliya	15%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
30	KAUR Jaap	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
31	LI Yunxuan (Joy)	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
32	CHIOU-WILLIAMS Matea	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
33	HAU Olivia	-	5%	27%	42%	23%	4%
34	ZHANG Helen	14%	55%	26%	5%	-	-
35	BUCA Nora	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%	-
36	SCANLAN Alina Nev	18%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-
37	MENG Fina	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
38	MOLLINIER Angel	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	3%
39	JAMES Ashley	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
40	MADANNAVAR Trisha	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
41	JAIN Aashi	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
41	PADHI Nisha	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-
43	JAIN Prisha	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
44	LEE Emma	29%	44%	23%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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