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Nittany Lion Cup RYC/RJCC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Nittany Valley Sports Centre - State College, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
2	RADOSLAVOV Ivan-Asen	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	20%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
3	SHANNON Jack	-	6%	24%	38%	24%	6%	1%
5	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	16%
6	LEVY Jacob	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	7%
7	GOGOI Vir K.	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	41%
8	CHEN Ethan	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
9	WANG Brian	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
10	VISHAWADIA Jaimin	1%	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
11	MCISAAC Finn	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
12	PEDERSEN Charles	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
13	SHAPIRO Leon	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
14	BURGOS Jacob R.	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
15	MILLER Dillon	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
16	STANOEV Sava	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	19%
17	TAM Kyle	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	2%	-
18	SUN Henry	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	8%	1%
19	CHO Xzander	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	4%
20	HUANG Eythan	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
21	HUNTER Phillip	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
22	BINET Nicolas	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
23	HOLLIS Sean	1%	14%	33%	33%	16%	3%	-
24	MUNDY Ezra	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
25	KAPLAN Maxwell	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
26	BAI Brian	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
27	CHANDRAMOHAN Aran	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
28	PECK Quinn	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
29	SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	1%
30	LEE Gidon	32%	42%	21%	5%	-	-	-
31	POWELL Sean	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
32	KENNEDY christo	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%
33	BROWN Alex	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
34	BASKIN Lukáš	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	2%	-
35	YIN Zixin(Gavin)	20%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
36	VALENTINE David	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
37	KRAMER Ryan	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
37	NICOLSON William	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
39	RAJU Dharshan	4%	27%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
40	BRAUTIGAM Nolan	67%	28%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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