The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

2nd Annual Bruce Capin Memorial Brawl

Div II Mixed Saber

Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 3:30 PM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	IRWIN Peter	-	-	-	2%	21%	78%
2	GUREVICH Savely	-	-	-	4%	19%	44%	33%
3	WISEMAN Derrick	-	-	-	-	8%	92%
3	BALLOU Johnathan	-	-	-	6%	58%	36%
5	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
6	FAIR James	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
7	THACKERAY Caden	-	-	4%	15%	33%	35%	13%
8	GLEASON Sean	-	-	6%	28%	44%	22%
9	HIRSCH Nicholas	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	4%
10	WOLF Gabriel	-	1%	7%	35%	55%	2%
11	PROUDNIK Anthony	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	16%
12	EDWARDS Clayton	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
13	CEBALLOS M. Micaiah	-	2%	14%	38%	36%	10%
14	BAINO Lorenzo	-	6%	23%	39%	27%	5%
15	BARRACLOUGH Finn	-	3%	31%	47%	18%	1%
16	STEWART Logan	-	6%	42%	42%	10%	-
17	TROEH Christopher	-	2%	18%	45%	34%	2%
18	LEE Andrew	-	4%	18%	40%	34%	5%
19	NAWAZ Taimoor	-	7%	46%	36%	9%	1%
20	FREEMAN Rian	11%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
20	JASPER Jordan	1%	13%	38%	37%	11%	-
22	ADIBZADEH Mehrdad	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%
23	MOTTLAU Maddox	3%	24%	43%	24%	5%	-
24	KAMAL Aidan	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
25	MOSHER Kai	12%	41%	35%	11%	1%	-
26	HABLICH Gabriel	1%	9%	33%	44%	12%	-
27	TORO Diego	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%	-
28	PENNER Charlie	14%	46%	32%	7%	1%	-
29	MARTIN Zak	5%	32%	47%	15%	1%	-
30	TIMMONS Johnny	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	18%
31	POND Verity	50%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
32	FREEDMAN Alexander	2%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
33	SANDOVAL Elena	4%	38%	49%	9%	-	-
34	BAUBLITZ Aidan	3%	20%	39%	29%	7%	-
35	MILLER SACKMAN Anita	45%	39%	13%	2%	-	-
36	LECHMERE Harry	41%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
37	PELLETIER Skylar	19%	58%	21%	2%	-	-
38	ESMER Ekin	35%	48%	15%	2%	-	-
39	POOLE Kiley	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%
40	ARCEO ZAMORA David	51%	39%	9%	1%	-	-
41	VALENCIAGA Sophia	50%	41%	8%	1%	-	-
42	KUPCHA McKenna	27%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
43	HOLMES Kaley	8%	34%	37%	17%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.