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W&M Conomikes-Gutenburg Memorial Open

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 1:00 PM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	POLONI Giovanni	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
2	YU William	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	MOORHOUSE Emmett	-	5%	30%	44%	19%	2%
3	SMOLICH Marat	-	3%	17%	43%	38%
5	HINDS David E.	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
6	AZIZI Zahl	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	22%
7	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
8	HAYES Nathan P.	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
9	PRICE Owen	-	-	1%	10%	39%	51%
10	BOLTON Max	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
11	HARPER Wesley	-	-	3%	23%	52%	22%
12	THAN Duc	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
13	REEDER Nicholas W.	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	4%
14	ZIMSKY James	1%	13%	36%	38%	11%
15	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	-	1%	9%	33%	42%	14%
16	FERGUSON Sam C.	1%	15%	41%	33%	9%	1%
17	ALTON Abigail	-	6%	30%	47%	15%	1%
18	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	-	2%	22%	45%	27%	4%
19	KASPER Lucia	4%	35%	41%	17%	3%	-
20	TANG Justin	1%	10%	35%	39%	13%	1%
21	IVATURI Sivakrishna	1%	9%	31%	37%	19%	3%
22	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	4%	23%	42%	26%	5%
23	LIN Janice	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
23	DEVINNEY Dale	5%	37%	39%	16%	3%	-
25	TERPENNING Sarah	9%	33%	38%	17%	2%	-
26	FEAGIN Patrick	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
27	BAYLESS Varnum	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%
28	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	-	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%
29	CONANT Aidan	1%	10%	33%	39%	16%	2%
30	HOPSON Ethan	3%	17%	35%	32%	13%	2%
31	SAE-TUNG Kevin	31%	55%	12%	1%	-	-
32	STEFFENSEN Lily	60%	34%	5%	-	-	-
33	SNELL Angelina	13%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
34	SINGH Jawand	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%
35	SINGH Meet	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
36	LAU-ALLEN Macy	37%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
37	CARLEY Aubrey	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
38	SAY Preston	33%	45%	19%	3%	-
39	GIBSON Karino	21%	52%	25%	2%	-	-
40	MOORE Annette	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
41	ALLEN Lily	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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