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Colorado Cup #4

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, March 9, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Fencing Academy of Denver - Littleton, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	STRAUSS Luke	-	-	-	1%	8%	38%	54%
2	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
3	MCCOWN Ronan	-	-	3%	21%	52%	24%
3	HARR Carver	-	-	1%	10%	36%	42%	11%
5	MCADOO Declan	-	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	25%
6	GAO Zachary	-	-	2%	11%	30%	40%	18%
7	DANIS Blake	-	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	24%
8	FRENCH Phaelen	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%	-
9	ZHOU Austin	1%	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
10	KISSINGFORD John	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
11	LEWIS Rachel	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
12	KENT Elizabeth	-	-	3%	19%	44%	29%	4%
13	LEE Jayden	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	20%	3%
14	BROOKS Justin	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
15	TRIFILETTI Lawrence	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
16	BEALL Milo	-	3%	14%	31%	32%	16%	3%
17	ALTMAN Jeff	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
18	MARENCIK Miles	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%	-
19	MUENKE Magnus	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
20	KENT David	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	15%
21	MARTINEZ Alejandra	1%	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-
22	DOMASHOVETZ Greg	-	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	2%
23	HANEY Kimberly	1%	11%	36%	38%	12%	1%	-
24	NOFZIGER Bennett	2%	17%	41%	35%	5%	-
25	MCGOUGH Kevin	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
26	LIU Fengqi	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
27	GERHARDSTEIN Quintan	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
28	MILLER Mason	30%	43%	22%	4%	-	-	-
29	ANDERSON Jennifer	28%	45%	22%	5%	-	-	-
30	ZHU Riley	9%	34%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
31	SYKES Elynor	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
32	EMERSON Zachary	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
33	GOODHEART Mateo	29%	50%	19%	2%	-	-	-
34	MAY Courtney	34%	46%	18%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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