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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIANG Evelyn	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
2	WANG Jiayi	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	4%
3	CHAN Jolene	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
3	NAVARRO LARIOS KATE	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	4%
5	LIN Annika	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
6	DUDNICK Morgan	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
7	SHEARER Alena	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	11%
8	CHEN Elaine	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
9	YUEN Nicole	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
10	LIN Elaine	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
11	LOMOTAN Addison	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
12	WONG Cerise	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
13	GAIKWAD Ashmiee	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
14	YU Skylar	4%	21%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
15	KIM Satie	-	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
16	LEE Madeleine	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
17	LEI Zitong (Meya)	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
18	WANG Peijia	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
19	HAN Emma	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	16%
20	HWANG Charlotte	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
21	NING Lynn	3%	21%	40%	27%	8%	1%
22	LIU kai yin aria	8%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%
23	BORDAS HILL Georgiana	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
24	PHAN Genevieve	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
25	WU Chloe	18%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
25	WONG Natalie	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
27	CHANG Annette	5%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
28	CHEN Colette	-	3%	16%	32%	32%	15%	3%
29	XU Rachel	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
30	SEAL Cameron I.	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
31	YU Stella	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
32	CAI Veronica	4%	21%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
33	KIRBY Skye	38%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
34	MUNGUIA Mila	-	2%	15%	36%	36%	11%
35	LONG Jessie	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
36	KIM Alice	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
37	ASPIRAS Avery	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
38	KIM Alexia	5%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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