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Premier Challenge ROC(D1A, DV2, VET), RJCC & PARA

Div II Women's Saber

Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PRESANTH Nandana	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%
2	MACKAY Katherine	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
3	JOHNSTON Lily	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	11%
3	ATTIA Jasmine	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	22%
5	BUSH Bethany	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
6	BAINS Nandini	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
7	ZHENG Valentina	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	10%
8	GENTILE Vittoria	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
9	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	21%
10	MCSWEENEY Kylie	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	3%
11	TENG EMMA	-	5%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
12	BROWN Aria	2%	12%	27%	32%	20%	6%	1%
13	CHI Claire	-	2%	9%	24%	35%	24%	6%
14	STADNIK Emilia	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	9%	1%
15	LIU Kelly	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	2%
15	BUTMAN Chloe Alexandra	4%	25%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
17	DENNER Jasmina	-	-	-	2%	14%	45%	39%
18	SPEARS Mya B	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
19	NAYAK Esha	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
20	CROOKS Riley	-	4%	16%	31%	30%	15%	3%
20	VINOKUR Anita	-	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	6%
22	KIM Audrey	4%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
23	SHMULER Fiona	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
24	MYAT Chloe	1%	7%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
25	BIRNSTILL Reese	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%
26	ALAMI Amira	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
27	BAIREDDY Maya	4%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
28	MONTORIO Lily M.	-	1%	9%	24%	35%	24%	6%
29	BARROSO Isabela	1%	6%	21%	32%	27%	11%	2%
30	MCGRAW Sadie	1%	8%	22%	33%	25%	10%	2%
31	STEYER Meredith J.	-	< 1%	2%	12%	32%	39%	15%
32	NAYAK Antara	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
33	GETZONI Mary	65%	29%	5%	< 1%	-	-	-
34	DEHON Inès	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
35	NEUMAN Ella	-	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
36	DESAUTELS Alexandra	26%	40%	25%	8%	1%	-	-
37	NAYAK Anika	-	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
38	CHEN Jia	7%	24%	35%	24%	9%	2%	-
39	MANSPERGER Gia	14%	34%	32%	16%	4%	1%	-
40	SCHLIENGER Katia	< 1%	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
40	ERBSEN Sarah	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
42	BRUNGARDT Gabriela	55%	35%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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