The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Monday, April 1, 2024 at 8:00 AM

University of California - Davis - Davis, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YEE Colin	-	-	1%	5%	24%	45%	25%
2	YANG Tate	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	KIM Andrew	-	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%
3	BHARDWAJ Ranbir	-	2%	11%	27%	35%	21%	4%
5	WANG Elijah (QiChen)	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
6	ZHANG Jason	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
7	CHEN Owen	-	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
8	EVANS Desmond	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
9	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	-	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	8%
10	GANAPATHI Eshan	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
11	HE Ian	-	-	1%	5%	23%	44%	26%
12	YU Jinyuan	1%	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
13	HE Gary	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
14	CHEUNG Henry	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
15	WU Gengze (Daniel)	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
16	HUANG Nathan	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
17	DING Sam	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
18	SAFTA Aidan	-	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	7%
19	XU Ethan	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
20	DULAI Agam	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	21%	4%
21	CHEN Ryker	-	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
22	ALCAZAREN Cian	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	4%	-
23	LI Jake	1%	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%
24	KWONG Colin	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-
25	LIN Dylan	22%	47%	26%	5%	-	-	-
26	CREMEL Remi	1%	10%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
26	LEONG Wilson Hua	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
28	LIN Sampson	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
29	NGUYEN Nolan	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
30	KO Ian	8%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
31	CHETWANI naman	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	7%	1%
32	LIN Stewart	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
33	KAJITA Grayson	5%	23%	35%	26%	9%	2%	-
34	SHA Laien	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-	-
35	KO Cameron	9%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
36	CANTU Gabriel	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
37	BACH-Y-RITA MC	7%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
38	SUTTON Alexander (AJ)	35%	43%	19%	3%	-	-	-
39	HSU Liam	45%	44%	10%	1%	-	-	-
40	BHANGOO Arman	2%	17%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
41	GU Evan	8%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-	-
42	LE Oliver	59%	34%	6%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.