The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

5th Annual Precision RYC and RJC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAI Edison	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
2	GACIOCH Noah	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	20%
3	JAIN Samyak	-	-	2%	10%	27%	39%	22%
3	LOUIE Joseph	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
5	KIM Alexander	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
6	WU Johnny y.	-	-	3%	13%	31%	36%	16%
7	PARKE Nathaniel	-	1%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
8	DAI Steven (Chengwen)	1%	8%	25%	34%	23%	8%	1%
9	WONG Baron	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
10	HSU Joshua	-	-	3%	14%	30%	35%	17%
11	LEE Royce	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
12	PORIKLI Sedat	1%	6%	20%	32%	27%	11%	2%
13	RODOCANACHI Hector	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	22%	4%
13	DENG haoyu	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
15	SHEN Jiayi	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
16	DU Evan	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
17	GADHVI Darius	1%	12%	30%	34%	18%	5%	-
17	GREENMAN Duke	1%	7%	22%	32%	26%	10%	2%
19	REICHMANN Theo	-	-	3%	16%	37%	36%	8%
20	HOCHSTEIN Tristan	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
21	RONG Marcus	4%	19%	34%	30%	12%	2%
22	WU Nathan	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
23	HAMILTON Travis	2%	15%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
24	WANG Lucas	-	2%	13%	32%	36%	15%	2%
25	FU Adrian	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
26	RONG Gordon	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
27	SCHIPPER Johann	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
28	MENG Haoyi	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
29	LIU Max	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%
30	BUENAVENTURA Camden	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
31	WONG Vansen	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
31	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
33	CHEONG Cameron	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
34	PISCITELLO Aleksandr	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
35	DENG Destin	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
36	KOU Mason	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%
37	WANG Dylan	8%	27%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
38	XUE Michael	-	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
39	LI Sean	12%	38%	34%	13%	3%	-	-
40	BERTEL Florian	1%	9%	24%	33%	23%	8%	1%
41	KIM Remington	-	5%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
42	KIM Evan	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
43	JAMES Kaden	11%	30%	33%	19%	6%	1%	-
44	TOUSSAINT Wizard	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
45	LI Grayson	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
46	LEE Damon	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
47	HUR Tyson	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-	-
48	MILLER Xavier	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.