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Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PAVLENISHVILI David G.	-	-	3%	20%	46%	32%
2	KIM Juni C.	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	INSLER Ethan C.	-	-	5%	29%	46%	19%
3	COLLYMORE Spencer T.	-	-	2%	16%	44%	37%
5	RHYU Kozmo	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
6	SCHEMBRI MCCORD Kruz T.	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
7	SOOMRO Adam A.	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
8	DIXON Thomas	1%	13%	42%	34%	10%	1%
9	VAYSBUKH Konstantin	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
10	CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris E.	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%	1%
11	MCKEEVER Luca	1%	9%	28%	37%	22%	4%
12	HANRATTY Liam	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%
13	BUROVSKY Maxim	-	2%	18%	44%	30%	6%
14	PRIHODKO Max	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
15	GANA Jr Jorge M.	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
16	LEE Noah	-	-	5%	26%	46%	23%
17	LIEF Isaac R.	-	1%	8%	31%	46%	15%
18	STEVENS George	-	4%	23%	42%	26%	5%
19	GALIS Nicholas	1%	20%	47%	26%	5%	-
20	POZOVSKIY Mitchell R.	-	6%	26%	42%	25%	2%
21	KOBI Samuel	-	2%	16%	44%	31%	6%
22	WU Jason	2%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
23	MACARTY Jordan T.	-	1%	7%	30%	44%	19%
24	LONCAR Luka E.	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	5%
24	JIN Owen	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
26	SALERNO Gaetano	-	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
27	WU Marcus	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%
28	FUSSMAN Yuval	13%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
29	ROLLO Emmett H.	-	5%	25%	44%	22%	3%
30	SIMPSON Patrick	6%	46%	38%	9%	1%	-
31	KARAMANIAN Nicholas	47%	38%	12%	2%	-	-
32	KIM Byung	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
33	JUN Jaywu	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
34	TSUI Matthew	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
35	PAVATE Rishi	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
36	WALCH Logan	22%	43%	28%	6%	1%	-
37	KHALITOV Alexander	25%	48%	24%	3%	-	-
38	PARK Frederick	1%	18%	40%	32%	9%	-
39	MISHIMA Torata	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
40	PAHLAVI Kamran	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
41	SCHADE Lucas	9%	51%	32%	7%	1%	-
42	ROYTBURD Samuel	9%	36%	41%	12%	1%	-
43	SUN Jeffery	24%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-
44	ZHANG William	17%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-
45	SUN Jason	1%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
46	ZHOU Andrew	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-
47	YUAN Zijie	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-
48	DOWD Peter L.	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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