The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Rockland RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Rockland Community College Eugine Levy Fieldhouse - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MANKOVA Varvara	-	-	5%	22%	43%	31%
2	LEOU Korina	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
3	MANSPERGER Leena	-	-	4%	19%	44%	33%
3	BUSH Bethany	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	6%
5	GUGALA Hanna	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
6	CROOKS Riley	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
7	ZENG Sarah	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	37%
8	BROWN Aria	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%
9	NEUMAN Ella	-	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%
10	NAYAK Esha	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
11	ZHANG Sophie	-	1%	7%	26%	45%	21%
12	GENTILE Vittoria	5%	24%	38%	26%	6%	1%
13	HUANG Rachael	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
14	LIU Yifei	-	-	1%	8%	36%	54%
15	REN Katherine	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
16	ONG Lauren	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
17	KANDADAI Lara	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
18	PRESANTH Nandana	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%
19	VISWANATHAN Nishka	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
20	NAYAK Antara	11%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
21	RANJAN Diya	1%	30%	42%	22%	5%	-
22	KIM Audrey	-	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
23	SHELLEY Scarlett	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
24	DEHON Inès	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	5%
25	BUTMAN Chloe Alexandra	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
26	ALAMI Amira	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
27	KNOBEL Sophia	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	4%
27	KWON Ava	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	7%
29	BAINS Nandini	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
30	BOLT - TURNER Carmen	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
31	ZHENG Valentina	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
32	LIM Alexa J.	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
33	KHOST Maeve	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%	-
34	LAGOON Miriam	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
35	AKULA Roszlynn	2%	21%	39%	28%	10%	1%	-
36	BEN SHAHAR-PYKE Lola Rae	89%	10%	-	-	-	-
37	LAI Evelyn	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.