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Rain City Super Youth Circuit (SYC)

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 3:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KANG Matthew	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
2	TANG Morgan	-	-	-	2%	13%	42%	42%
3	CHEN Jack	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
3	LUC Cedric	-	-	4%	19%	44%	33%
5	LUC Linkin	-	2%	18%	41%	32%	6%
6	XIAO Brayden	-	1%	11%	31%	39%	17%
7	NAIR Sujit	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	27%	6%
8	GREENSTEIN Viktor	-	-	2%	16%	49%	33%
9	KANG Jeremy	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
10	XU Yixiao	-	-	2%	14%	47%	38%
11	KARAVAS Nicholas	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	14%
12	HRISTOV Nickolas	-	-	1%	10%	31%	42%	15%
13	WONG Hawken	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
14	SOULES-ONO Makoa	-	4%	24%	40%	26%	6%
15	HE Zhikai (kyle)	-	6%	33%	45%	15%
16	LI Ryan	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	13%	2%
17	MHLEY Gavin	1%	11%	41%	38%	9%
18	CHEN Shawn	-	4%	17%	35%	31%	11%	1%
19	BRADIC Andreja	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
20	曾 ZIMO	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
21	LEI Peter	3%	25%	40%	25%	7%	1%
22	CHEN Aaron	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
23	LEE Brendan	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
24	LEI Isaac	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
25	HO Alden	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
26	KELLEHER Liam	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
26	VO Blake	-	6%	27%	39%	23%	4%
28	MOORE Greyson	3%	21%	41%	29%	6%	-
29	PARK Emerson	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
30	CHOI Brayden Yui Chit	18%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
31	WU Lucas	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
32	HOLMES Xavier	1%	16%	38%	33%	12%	1%
33	LIU Nico	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
34	JANG Seohyeon	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	11%	1%
35	LIU Enrique	10%	39%	37%	12%	1%	-
36	CHEN Brian	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
37	LAI Mars	2%	16%	42%	33%	7%	-
38	YANG Aegon	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
39	DUFF Michael	5%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
40	JOHNSON Jack	15%	54%	27%	4%	-
41	NELSON Henry	31%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
42	STAMPER Wyatt	25%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
43	WANG James	12%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
44	LUO Gavin	9%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
45	GUVEN Derin	63%	32%	4%	-	-
46	LIN Escher	1%	20%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
47	KASIAN Jack	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-
48	HE Richard	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%	-
49	FONG Carson	47%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
50	ALLEN Oliver	5%	31%	43%	18%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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