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Div II Men's Épée

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEVENTAL Mark	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
2	WU Steven	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
3	KUO Rylan	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
3	MORIN-JIANG Jake	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
5	ROBINSON Samuel	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
6	WONG Preston	-	4%	21%	38%	29%	7%
7	WU Eric	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
8	PIVOVAROV Lucas	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
9	COLLINS Kaden	45%	39%	13%	2%	-	< 1%	-
10	PRAKASH Hari	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
11	CHENG Trevor	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
12	YUEN Nathan	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
13	KLINKNER Richard	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1%
14	XU Yanwen	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
15	WONG Ethan	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
16	CHEW Aedan	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
17	GUO Woody	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	< 1%
18	SIM Ian	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
19	HINTON Evan	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
20	MCNAMARA Scott	-	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
21	CHAUDHURI Kabir	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
22	CLAES Thomas	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	8%
23	JOHAR Manvik	17%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
24	LOMIO Nicholas A.	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	9%
25	RUFANOV Maxim	3%	20%	37%	28%	10%	2%	-
26	BHARGAV Angad	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
27	KOERBER Christopher T.	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
28	CHANG Kristopher	49%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
29	LOGUE Paul	4%	24%	38%	26%	8%	1%
29	ZHAO Qinglin	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	5%
31	COHEN Joshua	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
32	MARTIN Zachary	54%	38%	7%	1%	-	-
33	LI Sean	20%	53%	23%	4%	-	-
34	CAMPBELL Kenneth	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
35	DUONG John	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
36	LOUIE Joseph	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
37	CHENG Zijun	-	3%	15%	31%	33%	16%	3%
38	CHAUDHARY Rohan	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
39	BAUMAN Colin	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-
40	BHATT Arjun	-	8%	33%	39%	17%	3%
41	KUO Michael	-	3%	16%	35%	31%	12%	2%
42	MITCHEM Paolo	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
43	TALATAM Arnav	13%	42%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
44	PEARSON Steven A.	9%	32%	36%	18%	5%	1%	-
45	PLOSCARU Matthew	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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