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Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 3:00 PM

New Jersey City University - John Moore Athletic Center - Jersey City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Sophie	-	-	-	7%	43%	50%
2	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	47%
3	PEDERSEN Clara	-	-	4%	17%	37%	33%	9%
3	ZHU Ella	8%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%
5	LI savannah	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	26%
6	EYER Brooke	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
7	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	-	3%	17%	35%	33%	11%
8	LIN Yunong	-	-	-	3%	16%	40%	41%
9	MACKINTOSH Quinn	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	13%	2%
10	FEDER Acadia	1%	8%	25%	36%	25%	6%
11	CAO Amelie	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	15%
12	SHIN Elizabeth	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
13	CAVANAGH Emma	-	3%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
14	CHOI Cara	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
15	ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya	-	-	1%	17%	54%	28%
16	SINGH Evangelina	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
17	SHANG Arianna	-	3%	23%	52%	19%	2%
18	WAN Celine	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
19	DE CASTRO Kai	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	9%
20	BEKIYANTS Elizabeth	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
21	COLE Sofia	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	1%
22	LIU Caydence	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
23	ARRAIANO Olivia R.	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	3%
24	JI DORA	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
25	HOLLIS Priscillia	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
26	SHUTZER Lily	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
27	BULAVA Tatyana	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	3%
28	CHAN Kaitlyn	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
29	ZHANG Jaffani	10%	30%	34%	19%	6%	1%	-
30	ZHOU Amy	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	2%
31	CHUNG Stella	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
32	SHAH Mahi	2%	12%	30%	35%	19%	4%
33	GUPTA-NWANZE Nisa	7%	33%	45%	14%	1%	-
34	LEZHANSKY Alexis	58%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
35	DINAR Julia	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
36	BALIN Sophia	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
37	GOMEZ Sofia	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
38	KOESTERS Florentine	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
39	HUSSIAN Annabelle	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
40	BAULIN Zoya	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
41	GUSTAFSSON Anna	27%	49%	22%	2%	-	-
42	PEVZNER Sophia	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
43	MAIA ZUCKERMAN Julia	2%	13%	30%	32%	18%	5%	-
44	ROSS Stella	33%	47%	18%	2%	-	-
45	MUNOZ Isabella	22%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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