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Y-14 Men's Saber

Friday, September 20, 2019 at 12:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Oscar	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
2	WOODWARD Connor	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%
3	FERNANDEZ Rodrigo	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
3	SHOMAN Noah	-	5%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
5	CHAN Matthew	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
6	TONG ZACHARY	-	-	4%	15%	32%	35%	15%
7	SIMAK Joseph P.	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	10%
8	CHIN Matthew W.	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
9	SHTEYN Mark	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	1%
10	NAZLYMOV Andrei	-	1%	8%	24%	37%	25%	6%
11	LE Hayden	-	2%	13%	31%	37%	16%
12	SHERWOOD Hayden F.	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
13	LEE Justin	-	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%
14	GREENBAUM Ian L.	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
15	HUCHWAJDA Marcel	-	-	5%	21%	43%	30%
16	MCCARTHY Gabriel	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
17	SHOMAN Zachary	-	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
18	BERRIO Carter E.	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
19	FENG Leo	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
20	DENG Andrew	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
21	CHAVES Matthew J.	1%	11%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-
22	LEE Aydan J.	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
23	HONG Steven	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
24	BABAYEV Gabriel A.	-	-	5%	20%	38%	31%	6%
25	REN James	10%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
26	MEHTA Krish	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
27	ETIN Ari	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%	-
28	YEE Evan J.	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
29	ZENG Noah	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
30	CHAUDHURI Eeshaan A.	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
31	KIM Shaun M.	-	1%	5%	21%	36%	29%	9%
32	HU Christopher	-	2%	9%	27%	36%	22%	4%
33	OH Triton	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
34	LIU Mingyang Ryan	7%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
35	GAO Andrew	12%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
36	CHEN Jia Tao	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
37	ZHANG Derek	6%	34%	38%	17%	4%	-	-
38	BENNETT III Carl	7%	24%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
39	BUKOWSKI Broghan J.	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
40	MAHAPATRA SAMARTH	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
41	WANG Andrew	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
42	GAUVEY Kieran	8%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
43	HEANEY Sam	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-
44	YEE Ethan C.	18%	37%	30%	12%	3%	-	-
45	LEONARD Charles	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
46	LARRAZOLO Vincent	30%	45%	20%	4%	-	-	-
47	MEYTIN Maxwell S.	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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