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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHENG Ivy	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
2	FREEDMAN Miranda W.	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	JING Emily	-	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
3	TUCKER ALARCON Ariadna C.	-	-	1%	14%	47%	38%
5	HALL Velma	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	16%
6	MASSICK Laine	-	-	-	3%	19%	49%	29%
7	YU Jaime L.	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%	-
8	LUNG Katerina	-	-	1%	20%	50%	29%
9	UPTON Elizabeth	-	6%	28%	47%	19%
10	KOENIG Charlotte R.	-	-	1%	10%	37%	41%	11%
11	LI Meilin	-	1%	6%	26%	41%	23%	4%
12	SANTOS Annika Beatrice I.	-	2%	17%	46%	29%	6%	-
13	YE Eileen	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	24%
14	PAPADAKIS Lily	-	1%	12%	42%	44%
15	PALMER Meredith K.	-	3%	19%	40%	32%	7%
16	YU Lauren C.	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
17	VIANNA Gabriella	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%
18	CHEN Jia P.	-	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
19	SULTANA-HOLE Olivia B.	10%	40%	36%	12%	2%	-
20	BAKER-ROSENBERG Raynor S.	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
21	ZHAO Aileen Y.	1%	9%	34%	38%	16%	2%
22	CHEN Allison V.	-	-	9%	49%	35%	7%
23	ADAMS KIM Natalie	1%	6%	22%	36%	26%	8%	1%
24	WONG Sophia M.	-	-	2%	16%	44%	32%	6%
25	WERBACH Esther	25%	44%	25%	5%	-
26	FELLUS Talia E.	5%	28%	42%	21%	4%	-	-
27	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	6%	27%	40%	22%	4%
28	MI Anning	4%	32%	51%	12%	1%	-
29	LIN Emma	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
30	MAESTRADO Ashley R.	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-	-
31	XUE Alanna	17%	43%	32%	8%	1%
33	SENIC Adeline	-	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%
34	SCHMIDT Victoria	4%	32%	46%	16%	2%	-	-
35	WEBB Ella	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	10%	1%
36	LIU Sophia	12%	38%	37%	11%	1%
37	LABELLE Audreanne	62%	33%	4%	-	-	-
40	KOROTCOVA Anastasia	15%	54%	29%	2%	-	-
42	JU Maggie	25%	58%	16%	2%	-	-
43	HERRIES Elsa	19%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
44	STAIKOS Eleni	59%	35%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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