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Y-12 Men's Foil

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOOSHI Jayden C.	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	41%
2	GARCIA Sebastian R.	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
3	GONG Benjamin	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
3	LIN James G.	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
5	MIALL Steven A.	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
6	LI Aaron	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
7	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	1%	9%	29%	38%	21%	4%
7	XIAO Benjamin	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
9	XU Ethan	-	1%	6%	26%	46%	20%	2%
10	WANG mason	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
11	ZHEN Ethan	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
12	LI Jinghua E.	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
13	TANG August L.	-	-	1%	8%	32%	47%	12%
14	LIN Michael	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
15	CHENG Ethan	4%	23%	38%	27%	8%	1%
16	CHEN Kyle P.	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
17	LEE Jacob J	3%	16%	36%	32%	11%	1%
18	XIANG Derrick	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
19	SVERDLOV Seth	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	4%
20	SONG Austin	2%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
21	JURMAN Therin	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
22	OZBURN Will	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
23	TANG Alexander L.	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
23	LEE Brendan	5%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
25	LIU Ryan	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-	-
26	SHEN Mingxuan	2%	15%	36%	34%	11%	1%	-
27	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	13%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
28	LI Allen	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
29	GUO Justin	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
30	SHAO Eric	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
31	LEE Jonah	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
32	ARCE Andrew W.	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-	-
33	TANG Terry	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
34	MALHAM Andrew	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-
35	LIU Jeremiah	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
35	BANG Ian	16%	41%	32%	10%	2%	-
37	BUI Van	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
38	BUI Kenneth	7%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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