The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Ryder Cup Memorial Saber RJCC & VET ROC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 9:00 AM

Durham, NC - Durham, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DANNULL Lukas J.	-	1%	17%	47%	35%
2	ESCUETA Tony V.	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
3	BENAVRAM Lev C.	-	-	2%	24%	74%
3	SMITH David C.	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
5	FERNANDEZ Rodrigo	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	11%
6	HAMMER Peter A.	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	38%
7	LEONARD Cole	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
8	HOFFMAN Skyler E.	6%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
9	HAMMERSTROM Jared	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	6%
10	CHIN Matthew W.	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
11	HUSSAIN Faaris	-	3%	30%	47%	20%
12	DANNULL Linus N.	-	1%	8%	23%	34%	26%	7%
13	TONG ZACHARY	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
14	ZHOU Justin	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
15	GILMORE Thomas W.	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	11%
16	BERRIO Carter E.	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	4%	-
17	DODRILL Grant	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
18	CHEN Brian	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	12%
19	HENSHAW Joseph	2%	14%	39%	39%	7%
20	BUKOWSKI Bronson	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	11%
21	ZHOU Kevin	-	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%
22	JARAMILLO Tobias L.	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
23	NAZLYMOV Andrei	-	5%	20%	36%	28%	9%	1%
24	CHANG Eliot A.	-	7%	38%	42%	13%
25	PARK Collin D.	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
26	GREENBAUM Ian L.	5%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
27	SIMAK Joseph P.	2%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
28	PAN Andrew W.	1%	6%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
29	COX Luis E.	32%	54%	13%	1%	-
30	DELARUE NELSON Y.	8%	34%	42%	15%	1%
31	CHAVES Matthew J.	17%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
32	LU Caleb Q.	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
33	GHENEA George Philipe	8%	41%	36%	13%	2%	-
34	JIANG Kevin	33%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
35	COSGROVE Connor R.	14%	42%	35%	8%	-
36	FORT David	35%	44%	18%	2%	-
37	WRIGHT Athan	12%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-
38	WOODWARD Connor	1%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
39	DESHETLER Scott	50%	44%	6%	-	-
40	GAO Andrew	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
41	HOLDEN Joseph	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
42	RENGER Felipe	60%	33%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.