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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MILAM Hugh	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
2	DAO Matthew M.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	20%
3	WELLS Tommy R.	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	1%
3	WANG Nathan	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
5	COMER Daniel T.	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
6	LEE Matthew C.	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
7	MEINHOLD Li	-	1%	10%	38%	40%	12%
8	YUMIACO Nolan C.	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
9	VOLK Martin L.	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
10	NORBUTAS Jackson S.	-	-	5%	18%	35%	31%	10%
11	JEONG Connor	-	-	4%	14%	32%	35%	15%
12	DINGMAN Spencer	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
13	NGO Ian M.	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
14	MOHEBI Saam	1%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
15	VELO Juan Manuel H.	6%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
16	MOORE Thomas J.	1%	11%	37%	40%	11%	1%
17	KOSLU Aidan D.	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
18	USHER Alexander	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
19	LAMBRECHT Julius	-	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
20	SMITH Zane A.	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	6%
21	MATTIS George	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
22	AHN Gus	32%	45%	20%	3%	-	-
23	WISOFF Jeffrey	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	-
23	CHU Anthony	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%
25	DRIBIN Zev	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
26	CHUNG Thomas	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
27	WOMACH Tristan	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%
28	THOMPSON Chester	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
29	WOO Jonathan	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
30	LIANG Aaron	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
31	CHAVARIN Gustavos L.	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
32	KAGAN Spencer E.	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
33	GILLISON Edward L.	4%	22%	40%	26%	7%	1%
34	BISEN Aryaman	21%	45%	28%	5%	-	-
35	CONROY John L.	20%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
36	KOPPE Benjamin	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
37	WESTON Tom	24%	40%	26%	9%	2%	-	-
38	ESTRADA Luke	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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