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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ONIK Elijah T.	-	3%	18%	45%	30%	5%
2	YEROKHIN Michael N.	-	-	-	-	6%	31%	63%
3	LIANG Lixi (Henry)	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
3	HOOSHI Dylan M.	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
5	LAURICELLA Douglas	-	-	1%	6%	21%	41%	32%
6	FU Samuel Y.	-	-	1%	13%	48%	38%
7	SHA Yi Peng	-	2%	17%	46%	31%	4%
8	ORVANANOS Jorge	-	-	3%	17%	42%	33%	5%
9	GUO Sean	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
10	HONG Issac	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
11	HOOSHI Jayden C.	-	-	2%	15%	49%	34%
12	DOCTOR Aidan L.	-	-	1%	10%	40%	50%
14	KWON Ethan	-	1%	10%	37%	42%	10%
15	KAO Castor T.	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
16	BAE Kevin	-	5%	27%	44%	22%	2%
17	FURST Matthew C.	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	2%
18	LIN James G.	-	-	5%	24%	42%	25%	3%
19	MILLER Aidan A.	1%	9%	32%	41%	15%	2%
20	TOLBA Abdelrahman	-	-	6%	32%	47%	14%
21	WANG Gerald Y.	2%	17%	43%	31%	7%	-
22	ZHAI Jeffrey	-	6%	30%	42%	20%	2%
23	XIANG Derrick	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
24	TORRES Treston	-	5%	28%	41%	21%	4%	-
25	PROMRAT Pete	-	2%	15%	34%	34%	13%	1%
26	BELLUOMO David C.	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
27	RUSADZE Nickolas	-	-	< 1%	7%	36%	57%
28	KLEIN Sebastian W.	-	3%	21%	43%	28%	5%
29	BASAK Ashton R.	29%	53%	16%	2%	-	-
30	BOOTSMA Shane-Anson	-	6%	27%	44%	22%	1%
31	ZHAO Jesse	1%	9%	36%	38%	14%	2%	-
32	BOUSSY Luciano	28%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
34	SHADPOOR Ryan	3%	39%	44%	13%	1%	-
35	ZHONG Guoren	1%	28%	47%	21%	3%	-
36	WANG Alex L.	26%	47%	24%	4%	-	-
37	BADLANI Dev	15%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
38	LI Yao (Liam)	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
39	TALLARICO Matthew	21%	46%	27%	5%	-	-
40	KLYCZEK Andrew	6%	31%	45%	16%	2%	-
40	LI Ayren	7%	31%	43%	18%	2%	-
42	ZHANG HANMO	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
43	JONES Taajuddin	17%	50%	27%	5%	-	-	-
44	LI Jinghua E.	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
45	VALENTON Timothy	44%	44%	11%	1%	-	-
46	DAVIDSON Elliot	25%	52%	21%	3%	-	-
47	WOODTHORPE Michael G.	31%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
50	RYNSKI Gerik	9%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
51	SANDHU LERNER Armaan S.	89%	10%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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