The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Fairfax Challenge SYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:00 PM

Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center - Miami, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Timothy Seungjoon	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
2	GONZALEZ II Ricky G.	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
3	LIVERANT Skyler J.	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
3	RINEHART Conner M.	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
5	DIXON Samuel	-	1%	5%	21%	37%	28%	7%
6	RA Jr. Daniel M.	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
7	KAMBESELES Peter G.	-	6%	30%	41%	20%	3%
8	ZAFFT Maximo S.	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
9	HADDAD Justin R.	-	-	2%	16%	36%	34%	11%
10	REID Avo	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	27%	5%
11	MARAKOV Allen B.	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
12	JAYENDRA Chandrashekar	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
13	KAMBESELES Jack M.	-	3%	19%	42%	31%	5%
14	GANA Jr Jorge M.	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
15	GAIDAR Daniel B.	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	5%
16	SCHEMBRI MCCORD Kruz	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%
17	DOLGONOS Mark	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
18	PARK Prestan S.	-	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%
19	NOMANI Shibli D.	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	16%
20	PARK Minchan	1%	5%	18%	31%	28%	13%	3%
21	GIBSON Nowell L.	-	5%	17%	31%	29%	14%	3%
22	YOON Nathan	4%	19%	35%	30%	12%	2%
23	PAVLENISHVILI David G.	-	3%	13%	28%	33%	19%	4%
24	BORATGIS Christopher J.	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	3%	-
25	GOLDFINE Ian J.	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	7%
26	GUBIN Bobby	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
27	KWONG Lyndon S.	3%	18%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
28	KRAVIT Connor B.	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
29	COHEN Mattias K.	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
29	REJALI Cameron	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
31	KIM Alex	5%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
32	ROTHKA Spencer J.	8%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	O'HARA Keegan J.	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
34	TRAN Dai Long	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
35	BOSWELL Griffin H.	4%	22%	38%	28%	8%	1%
37	SHIKHMAN Robert	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
38	FRAGOLA Robert	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
39	RUIZ Rafael F.	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
40	WIMMER Chandler M.	16%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
41	ADLER Ethan M.	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
42	PARK Brian	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
43	BOYKO Ryker	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
44	DIXON Thomas	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.