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USA Fencing National Championships & July Challenge

Vet-50 Men's Foil

Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Columbus, OH - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DAVIS Don	-	-	-	-	-	14%	85%
2	OLIVARES Frets G.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
3	FOELLMER Oliver K.	-	-	1%	9%	36%	41%	13%
3	WYSZYNSKI Marek B.	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
5	GRANDBOIS Peter R.	-	-	-	2%	18%	46%	34%
6	FELDMAN Adam	-	-	2%	14%	46%	38%
7	PIMOUTKINE Roustam R.	-	-	-	2%	20%	68%	10%
8	KISSINGFORD John F.	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
9	WILLEY David S.	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
9	KOEHN Ted	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	3%
11	AMRINE JR Terry L.	4%	24%	42%	26%	4%	-
12	HENSLEY Todd	2%	31%	47%	18%	3%	-	-
13	SZEGO Levente (Levi)	-	-	2%	19%	50%	29%
14	FADL Omar	-	1%	16%	42%	34%	8%
15	DIAZ Julio P.	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	2%
16	JONES Sam J.	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
17	ESTELL Oscar M.	-	2%	24%	44%	26%	4%
18	DENMAN Matthew L.	1%	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
19	BALESTRACCI Chris	-	2%	17%	41%	35%	5%	-
20	HAYENGA Gary M.	-	1%	20%	43%	30%	6%
21	GRAJALES Nestor L.	-	-	-	3%	31%	47%	18%
22	PROCOPIO Gregory M.	4%	31%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
23	BECKER William L.	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
24	WHARTON David	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%	1%	-
25	GRISWOLD Doug	-	2%	13%	33%	35%	14%	2%
26	GALLUCH Peter G.	-	2%	21%	60%	16%	1%	-
27	WU Clarence C.	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%	-
28	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	1%	18%	43%	31%	7%	-	-
29	YOO Terry S.	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
30	SCHWARTZMAN Benjamin	26%	48%	23%	3%	-	-
31	SHYNKARUK Wil	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
32	CROSTHWAITE John T.	24%	47%	26%	3%	-	-	-
33	NEWELL Tim	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
34	ALLAN Peter L.	28%	62%	9%	1%	-	-
35	POWERS Douglas A.	2%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%
36	GILLESPIE Jeremy W.	10%	41%	36%	12%	1%	-	-
37	PREUD'HOMME Xavier A.	64%	34%	1%	-	-	-
38	GOODRICH Gary	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-
39	WEMPLE Charles	75%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	CONNELL 3rd James	44%	51%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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