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Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:30 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Ryan	-	-	4%	24%	54%	18%
2	NORBUTAS Jackson S.	-	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
3	LEE Alexander G.	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
3	MOSES Alexander	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
5	DAO Matthew M.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
6	SHUR Yakov C.	-	-	2%	10%	30%	41%	17%
7	JEON Alexander E.	-	3%	23%	47%	24%	3%
8	JIN Nicholas	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
9	DEKERMANJI Christopher	-	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
10	AHN Gus	5%	22%	35%	26%	9%	2%	-
11	RANGEL Arturo	-	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
12	LIANG Aaron	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
13	MENDOZA Zachari	-	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%
14	THOMPSON Chester	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%	-
15	USHER Alexander	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
16	POCSVEILER Magor	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
17	MOHEBI Saam	-	4%	25%	51%	19%	2%
18	CHU Anthony	1%	10%	32%	38%	18%	3%
19	ZHU Max	-	-	1%	9%	32%	44%	14%
21	HWANG Samuel W.	-	-	-	5%	34%	60%
22	ROBINSON Riley	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
23	SOOHOO Jackson F.	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
24	WONG Daniel	1%	8%	32%	45%	13%	1%
25	JIN daniel	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	13%
26	FEES HOLDEN	1%	12%	40%	35%	11%	1%
27	ALFARO Justus	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
28	BURKE Spencer W.	-	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
29	KIM Darius H.	15%	41%	35%	8%	1%	-
30	JAIN Aditya	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
31	BISEN Aryaman	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
32	WANG DEVON	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%	-
33	KOOHPAREH Kian	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
34	SINGHA Orion	-	-	2%	20%	52%	25%
35	KAGAN Spencer E.	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
36	KOPPE Alexander	3%	30%	49%	16%	1%	-
37	ZHOU Stanley Q.	7%	41%	39%	12%	1%	-
38	YOUNG Jr Colby	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
39	WITT Zachary	9%	41%	37%	12%	1%	-
41	YEH Preston	29%	47%	21%	3%	-	-
42	MUIR Douglas K.	13%	41%	36%	9%	1%	-
43	SAMY David	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-	-
44	SCOFIELD Thien J.	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
46	CORDOVA-CHAVARRY Alejandro	10%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
47	ONTIVEROS Miller	18%	46%	29%	6%	1%	-
48	GAO Chaney C.	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
49	YALAMANCHALI Pranay	17%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-	-
50	KIM Sullivan	72%	25%	2%	-	-	-
51	CROSSMAN Brandon	85%	14%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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