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Brent Nieman Epee RJCC/RYC (Region 6)

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 9:00 AM

East Point, GA - East Point, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHIN Sung (Andy)	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
2	VERNACHIO Anthony	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
3	HAN Matthew	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	58%
3	CHO Tyler H.	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
5	JAMES Samuel	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
6	KIM Alexander	1%	13%	33%	35%	16%	2%
7	TINSLEY Cole	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%
8	GORIUNOV Ivan A.	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
9	MOON Ryan Y.	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
10	BEACH Nicholas	-	3%	12%	29%	35%	18%	2%
11	MANZ Hamilton R.	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	10%
12	PARK Jong-Eun	5%	28%	42%	21%	4%	-
13	JAAFAR Youssef	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
14	WALKER IV Weymouth D.	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%
15	CHAMBERS Matthew	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
16	BUYANOV Nikita V.	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%
17	JAAFAR Adam	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
18	DIB Aaniss	-	3%	15%	32%	34%	15%	2%
19	JACKSON James	2%	10%	27%	34%	21%	5%	-
20	CANTRELL Jason T.	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
21	JAAFAR Omar	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
22	PARAMESH Dhilan R.	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
23	NG Joshua Z.	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
24	SIVAKUMAR Ajit	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
25	MONTALVO Joseph A.	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
26	JOSEPH William	4%	25%	39%	24%	7%	1%
27	BREMER Blake M.	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
28	FU Ethan	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
29	HAN David	15%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
30	FERNANDEZ Christopher	22%	45%	26%	6%	1%	-
31	YANG Taeyoung	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
32	HELGASON Tómas Ari	15%	41%	34%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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