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December NAC

Vet-60 Men's Foil

Saturday, December 15, 2018 at 12:30 PM

Cincinnati, OH - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PAVLOVICH Robert	-	-	2%	26%	54%	18%
2	WILBERT Matt	5%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
3	MCCARTHY Daniel (Dan) W.	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	21%	3%
3	DOURAGHY Jamie M.	-	3%	16%	40%	33%	7%
5	KLEIN Johannes	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	19%
6	STREB Joseph S.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
7	MARIANI Lou	-	-	5%	24%	45%	26%
8	GROSS Stephen R.	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
9	BENNETT Philippe	-	-	-	4%	22%	46%	27%
10	LAWRENCE John W.	-	-	3%	20%	45%	32%
11	DORFMAN Mitchell (Mitch) J.	-	5%	22%	38%	26%	8%	1%
12	MALNATI Donald H.	1%	6%	20%	31%	28%	12%	2%
13	CONYARD Anthony	-	1%	7%	22%	34%	27%	9%
14	DELL George H.	1%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%
15	KAROLAK Dale W.	1%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
16	DRAKE David L.	-	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
17	LUTTON Thomas (Tom) W.	-	1%	13%	35%	37%	14%
18	LIM Richard M.	-	3%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
19	VOELZ Jim	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
20	BISCHOFF William B.	1%	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
20	JOHANSON David B.	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
22	RESS Michael A.	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
23	CRACRAFT William J.	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
24	CHAMBERS Thomas J.	5%	34%	41%	17%	2%	-
25	MILLIGAN Bruce C.	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
26	DAUGHERTY Ron L.	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
27	ZEISS Gary M.	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
28	GLADNICK Michael J.	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
29	POWERS James J.	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
30	HAGOPIAN Mitchell	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
31	BLAIR III Ray H.	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
32	CAIN Russell (Russ) P.	11%	39%	40%	10%	1%	-
33	KIRSHNER Ronald	38%	46%	14%	1%	-	-
34	KEENEY Jeff	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
35	LANDIS Geoffrey A.	10%	35%	37%	15%	3%	-	-
36	WILLIAMS Theodore	3%	27%	44%	21%	4%	-
37	SZATHMARY Michael J.	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
37	BRAINERD Jim	4%	21%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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