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December NAC

Div II Men's Saber

Monday, December 17, 2018 at 12:00 PM

Cincinnati, OH - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RIVERA Inigo Franco	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	15%
2	FALLICK Ozzie	3%	17%	36%	32%	12%	1%
3	KAUFMAN Bradley A.	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
3	QIU Le	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
5	DOARES Andrew	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
6	SHANAHAN Adam E.	1%	11%	35%	36%	14%	2%
7	MOORE Evan M.	4%	25%	42%	23%	5%	-
8	LUEBBE Macklan C	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
9	LIMB Matthew G.	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
10	JONES Graham H.	-	-	4%	21%	46%	29%
11	MURTHY mukund	1%	10%	31%	39%	17%	2%
12	MONTGOMERY Jadon T.	-	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	5%
13	CHO Brandon	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
14	WESLER Logan A.	4%	33%	41%	18%	4%	-
15	BULANOV Alex Z.	6%	21%	32%	26%	12%	3%	-
16	HUDDY Brandon J.	-	4%	15%	29%	31%	17%	4%
17	MATHARU Sukhveer	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%
18	RICH Augustus (Gus) G.	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
19	HOLMES Aiden G.	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%
20	MOSKOWITZ Mason C.	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
21	DESAI Drewv D.	4%	22%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
22	VASILYEV Nikita K.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
23	WOOD Elden S.	-	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
24	PARKER Timothy S.	22%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
25	BARTOLO Domenic V.	-	6%	22%	39%	28%	5%
26	WU Nicholas R.	4%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%
27	CORNEJO Jeffrey A.	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
28	ALLUM Christopher T.	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
29	MYERS Kaleb S.	-	4%	20%	38%	28%	8%	1%
30	HANEY Vincent	53%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
31	PEAGLER Cameron	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
32	KARNES Jameson D.	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
33	GILLIGAN Wolff	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
34	LIU Edward H.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
35	CACERES Hernan	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	2%
36	PATRICK Timothy M.	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
37	HUANG Zekai	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
38	WUN William	1%	9%	24%	32%	24%	9%	1%
39	HICHA Paul R.	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
40	EPSTEIN Henry N.	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
41	GREENBAUM Ian L.	3%	18%	39%	31%	9%	1%
42	HWANG Ryan C.	13%	33%	33%	17%	5%	1%	-
43	HU Xueyu (Jack)	17%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-
44	MALDARI Frank	23%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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