The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Fairfax Challenge Summer ROC/RJCC/RYC/VET - Reg Re-Opens 12/28

Junior Women's Foil

Friday, June 18, 2021 at 4:00 PM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JING Alexandra	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
2	STUTCHBURY Carolina J.	-	-	-	5%	34%	62%
3	SERBAN Samantha M.	-	-	-	9%	40%	51%
3	JING Emily	-	-	-	-	7%	37%	55%
5	GRIFFIN Emma G.	-	-	1%	13%	41%	44%
6	MILLER Naomi E.	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
7	KHOO Lauren A.	-	-	6%	30%	48%	16%
8	FERRETTI Anna Rebecca	-	-	2%	23%	45%	26%	3%
9	WU Julianna Y.	2%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%
10	HALL Velma	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
11	SHAW Kayla M.	-	-	1%	15%	42%	35%	6%
12	SADAN Jordan E.	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%
13	XUE Alanna L.	-	-	6%	50%	39%	6%
14	CHEN Allison V.	-	-	2%	31%	53%	14%
15	LIAO Lu Jia (Lucy)	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
16	YHIP Mikaela M.	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
17	LI Meilin	-	-	1%	8%	36%	44%	11%
18	NEWHARD Zelia "Zizi"	-	-	2%	15%	45%	32%	5%
19	RENTON Samantha	-	5%	27%	43%	21%	3%
20	JANG Kimberley	-	1%	7%	31%	45%	16%
21	HUANG NATALIE	2%	19%	43%	29%	7%	1%
22	DU Hannah	-	3%	19%	46%	28%	4%
23	DATLA Meha	31%	52%	16%	< 1%	-	-
24	QIAN Zhiyan	4%	29%	53%	12%	1%	-	-
25	CASTANEDA Erika L.	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
26	ZHAO Aileen Y.	1%	15%	42%	33%	9%	1%
27	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	42%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
28	YU Lauren C.	1%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
29	KETTELLE Molly	40%	45%	13%	1%	-	-
30	WANG Ashley	2%	19%	42%	31%	7%	1%	-
31	LIU Siyuan	-	-	5%	34%	43%	17%	1%
32	SMIGRODZKI Nymeria	2%	19%	41%	31%	7%	1%	-
33	SLASKI Caroline O.	4%	30%	43%	21%	3%	-	-
34	MEI Sarah	10%	37%	40%	12%	1%	-
35	HSIEH Rebecca	6%	34%	52%	7%	-	-
36	YANG Lingting	14%	46%	32%	8%	1%	-
37	MADSEN Ansley	27%	52%	19%	1%	-	-	-
38	KRUPENKO Sabrina R.	12%	43%	36%	8%	1%	-
39	SCHMIDT Victoria	54%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
39	DUVVURI Oorvi	41%	47%	12%	-	-	-
41	ZULUETA Catherine	26%	49%	22%	4%	-	-
42	DATLA Medha	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
43	WANG Cynthia	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-	-
43	ZARE Yasmin	46%	45%	9%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.