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Colorado Cup #2

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 12:00 PM

South Denver Fencing Academy - Centennial, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SMITH Jackson	-	-	-	2%	16%	45%	36%
2	LATIF IMRAN ZAKARIYYA	-	-	-	1%	14%	52%	33%
3	CARRIER Gabriel A.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	SATTERFIELD Donald	-	-	5%	25%	42%	24%	4%
5	LI Patrick	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
6	HOLDERNESS Landon	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
7	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	-	5%	21%	40%	30%	4%
8	ALTMAN Jeff H.	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
9	GAO Zachary	1%	9%	32%	41%	16%	1%
10	MILLER Veronica	3%	16%	31%	30%	16%	4%	-
11	MCADOO Declan	-	2%	14%	42%	33%	8%	1%
12	HARR Carver	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	7%
13	CHI Chelsea	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
14	CHRISTENSEN Parker	10%	39%	37%	12%	1%	-
15	MCCOWN Ronan	-	5%	21%	40%	28%	6%	-
16	CHOI Kaiden I.	-	2%	12%	30%	37%	18%	1%
17	ERKENBECK Nathan M.	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	2%
18	PEARSON Heila	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	6%
19	BARTLETT Christopher	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
20	MCDONALD Connor	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%	-
21	FUNSTON Lauren L.	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
22	HANEY Kimberly M.	19%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
23	ANDERSON Donald	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%	-	-
24	BURBEY Sam	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	1%	-
25	PETERSON Matthew	5%	27%	43%	22%	4%	-
26	PEARSON Arwa	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
27	BARTLETT Kaleah	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
28	MU Jason	3%	24%	56%	16%	2%	-	-
29	FOX Alexander	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
30	SZABO Oliver	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
31	ARMSTRONG Theo	9%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
32	LEWIS Rachel	36%	48%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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