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Tune-Up Open Tournament

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:00 AM

DCFC - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HADDAD Justin R.	-	-	-	-	5%	40%	55%
2	HILBERT Xavier	-	-	2%	22%	50%	25%
3	SUICO Zachary Emanuel O.	-	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
3	CHEN Eric	-	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	3%
5	JOYCE Michaela	-	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	26%
6	TAMULONIS Fen C.	-	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	8%
7	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	20%
8	DOSS David A.	-	-	6%	27%	44%	24%
9	PARK Faith K.	-	-	1%	8%	25%	40%	26%
10	WOZNIAK Ignacy	-	-	2%	11%	31%	41%	15%
11	DUAN Eric	4%	29%	43%	20%	3%	-
12	JORDAN Anton	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%	-
13	ZHAO Luhan	-	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	2%
14	HENSAL Nicolas A.	-	-	5%	23%	41%	28%	2%
15	HANSEN Lars	-	2%	11%	32%	41%	14%
16	CAO Brad	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
17	HODGE Jaydon L.	1%	5%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
18	HUGHES Michael D.	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
19	GISLER Benjamin B.	-	8%	31%	42%	17%	2%
20	KIM Ryan	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
21	CAO Albert	-	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
22	HOFFMANN Christopher J.	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
23	STUBBLEFIELD Alexander	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	4%
24	PARK Brian	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%	-
25	JONES Tyler	5%	37%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
26	MARKAS Justin W.	-	2%	21%	44%	27%	5%
27	LEE JoonWon	4%	33%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
28	WANG Trontour	22%	46%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
29	HILBERT Gabriel E.	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
30	LU Sebastian X.	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
31	WOZNIAK Fryderyk	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
32	PARKER Emilie Rose (Rosie)	19%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-
33	CHAMBLISS Logan C.	-	3%	15%	35%	33%	12%	1%
34	ZHANG Caden	19%	46%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
35	COHN Benjamin	7%	44%	42%	7%	-	-
36	LU Samantha R.	11%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
37	ILYAS Zakariya	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%	-
38	O'NEILL Andrew (Andy) P.	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%	1%
39	ASHER Valerie	-	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
40	LIN Harrison	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
41	YOU Emily	9%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
42	SEID Zachary W.	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
43	MILLER Kurt	38%	44%	15%	2%	-	-	-
44	MARSH Alex	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
45	ZHANG Richard	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
46	LU Qi	5%	31%	40%	19%	4%	-	-
47	YANG James	31%	59%	10%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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