The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Neil Lazar RYC-RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 2:30 PM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
2	YU Jaime L.	-	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%
3	DU Hannah	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
3	PAHLAVI Dahlia	-	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	20%
5	COSTELLO Angeline S.	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
6	YU Lauren C.	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	14%
7	GU Emily	-	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%
8	SU Michelle	-	5%	22%	42%	26%	5%
9	MILLER Naomi E.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
10	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
11	SHAW Kayla M.	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
12	WU Julianna Y.	-	-	2%	12%	35%	37%	13%
13	OLIVEIRA Lavinia M.	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
14	FU Qihan	-	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
15	CHOW Annabelle	-	2%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
16	ROY Layla	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
17	SERBAN Samantha M.	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
18	WONG Sophia M.	-	-	4%	20%	40%	31%	5%
19	RENTON Samantha	-	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
20	PERLMAN Talia	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
21	XUE Alanna L.	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
22	SEO Irene Y.	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
23	JENKINS Hannah G.	10%	34%	38%	15%	3%	-
24	YE Eileen	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	17%
25	CHARALEL Jessica	7%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-
26	ASCHETTINO Aurora	9%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-
27	ZHENG Julie	1%	12%	30%	34%	18%	5%	-
28	WANG Jasmine	1%	8%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
29	YANG Lingting	1%	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
30	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	21%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
31	JIANG Claire	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
32	RICHARDS Ella	36%	49%	13%	1%	-	-	-
33	MARKOVSKY Nina	1%	7%	27%	39%	21%	5%	-
34	MEYER Claudia	6%	27%	40%	21%	5%	-	-
35	XIANG Emma	2%	13%	35%	36%	13%	1%
36	TAYLOR-CASAMAYOR Marisol	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-	-
37	SCARLETT Skye	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
38	LENZ Zoe N.	21%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-
39	FERRETTI Anna Rebecca	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
39	MUSTO Isabella	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
41	PAULUS Isabella	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
42	HUNT Abigail S.	6%	36%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
43	UNGERER Frieda	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
44	FULIGNI Isabella	34%	48%	16%	2%	-	-	-
45	LEITE Alexandra	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
46	POPOVA Polina	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.