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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Xiaohan	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
2	SOURIMTO Valeria	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
3	DANK Dina	-	-	-	3%	18%	42%	36%
3	HASSANEIN Toqa	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
5	CHEN Ashley	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	9%
6	WANG Jianning	-	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%
7	OBRADOVIC Ana	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
8	LEE Sophia	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	16%
9	ATLURI Sara V.	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
10	XIKES Katherine E.	-	1%	17%	43%	33%	7%
11	BAKER Audrey C.	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	30%
12	NATH Trisha	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	11%
13	HE Lizbeth	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
14	JEONG Katie	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
15	MCKEE Ainsley	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
16	GOMERMAN Sophia	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
17	LIAO Siwen	-	1%	12%	38%	38%	11%
18	JENKINS Scotland	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
19	HENRY Soraya S.	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
20	CHEN Jessica	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
21	SPEARS Mya B	-	5%	36%	41%	16%	2%
22	WU Helen	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	7%
23	FESTA Carina	-	3%	22%	41%	27%	6%
24	ZENG Megan	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
25	D'ORAZIO Sofia V.	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
26	LI Angela	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
27	JOHNSTON Lily	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
28	NAYAK Anika	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
29	NAYAK Esha	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	-
30	CHARLES Caitlin	18%	51%	25%	5%	-	-
31	ZHENG Valentina	3%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
32	MESSICK Maya	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
33	MCSWEENEY Kylie	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
34	FLATT Sophia	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
35	REN Xinling	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
36	YEN Natalie	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-
37	KUANG TongFei	4%	19%	35%	30%	12%	2%
38	ALANGAD Rhea	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
39	DEANGELO Annabelle	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
40	BAWA Anahat	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
41	HORMEL Molly	42%	52%	6%	-	-	-
42	DUBETSKY Ashley	62%	31%	6%	1%	-	-	-
43	CALISTRI Ava	59%	36%	5%	-	-	-
44	AGARWALA Armanii K.	43%	47%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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