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Y-12 Men's Foil

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SIU Aiden	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	16%
2	MIN Eric	-	1%	12%	40%	47%
3	GUERRA Gabriel H.	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
3	ZHEN Ethan	-	2%	15%	45%	39%
5	CANLAS Nathan	-	-	4%	20%	44%	33%
6	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
7	HUANG Eythan	9%	32%	39%	18%	3%
8	TANG August L.	-	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%
9	DESHMUKH Arjun	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
10	PARK Sangmin	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
11	CHOI Ethan	-	4%	25%	48%	23%
12	LIU Ethan	2%	18%	40%	33%	7%
13	ZHANG Aaron	5%	25%	42%	24%	4%
14	YAO Bradley	-	6%	24%	43%	28%
15	HAN Derek	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
16	WU Lucas	1%	22%	41%	28%	7%	1%
17	DINSAY Kristjan	1%	10%	36%	41%	12%
18	FINDLAY Zachary	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%
19	LING Eddie	1%	11%	38%	40%	11%
20	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	2%	12%	34%	38%	13%
21	TANG Albert	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
22	FUKUDA Diego	-	6%	24%	43%	27%
23	SISINNI Riccardo	5%	25%	38%	25%	6%	1%
24	NGUYEN martin	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%
25	XU Andy P.	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
26	TANG Alexander L.	2%	17%	41%	32%	7%
27	EDWARDS Maxon	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%
28	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
29	CHOI Benjamin	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%
30	NICOLETTI Luca	10%	42%	37%	10%	1%
31	PALMA Nathan Anthony	4%	29%	44%	20%	3%
32	RUSSELL Paul	1%	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%
33	ALLEN Henry G.	2%	22%	44%	28%	5%
34	YUE Jackson	32%	46%	19%	3%	-
35	CHUANG Oscar	55%	37%	7%	1%	-
35	SLUSHER Gideon	6%	36%	42%	15%	1%
37	PARK Rion	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%
38	MANDZY Theodor	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%
39	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%
40	TSAY Jordan R.	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%
41	GUTH Joseph	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
42	MANIKTALA Suvir	39%	43%	16%	2%	-
43	LE Jacob	69%	27%	4%	-	-
44	CHANG Eric Jonathan	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%
45	CAI Ron	25%	47%	23%	4%	-
46	CHINTE Oliver	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
47	CHEN David	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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