The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

South Coast RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, November 21, 2021 at 12:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Visitors Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
2	TORRES JIMENA	-	-	-	3%	33%	64%
3	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	-	3%	22%	45%	29%
3	LOCKE Savannah	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
5	LUO Sandra J.	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
6	KOROL Neta	-	-	2%	16%	59%	23%
7	CHEW Alexis T.	-	-	10%	35%	41%	14%
8	DO Leila	-	4%	47%	39%	9%	1%
9	CUI Amy	-	-	3%	15%	38%	35%	9%
10	PANT Anisha	-	-	3%	25%	50%	22%
11	RANDOLPH Piper	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
12	FERNANDES Thea	-	1%	11%	37%	39%	13%
13	PENG Amber L.	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
14	YIN Helen	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%
15	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	4%	19%	40%	31%	6%
16	TALWALKAR Apoorva	-	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
17	TRAN Ava D.	-	-	1%	11%	43%	45%
18	KOROL Dana	-	1%	6%	24%	41%	25%	4%
19	SUN Emily	7%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
20	LUH Mia P.	3%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
21	SHUM Elizabeth	-	13%	42%	39%	6%	-
22	HWANG Alison	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	24%	4%
23	CHANG Elizabeth	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
24	HAN Crystal	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
25	LEE Ji Ahn	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	4%	-
26	WANG Brina	11%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
27	PATTERSON Natalia	2%	37%	44%	15%	1%	-
28	YANICELLI Sloane	53%	41%	6%	-	-	-
29	OTEYZA Camille	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
30	VO Bao-Vy	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-
31	ZHUANG Christina	1%	9%	42%	36%	11%	1%
32	CHOI Kailyn	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
33	MORADI Raiyan N.	-	1%	22%	49%	25%	3%
34	SHUM Maya	1%	8%	28%	38%	20%	4%	-
35	GUAN Sydney	32%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
36	WILSON Liya	27%	64%	8%	-	-	-
36	BECKSTEAD Makayla	2%	23%	47%	25%	2%	-
38	CABALU Alaina	5%	30%	40%	21%	4%	-	-
39	HAN Ashley	5%	25%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
40	GUAN Sophie	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
41	MCKAY Teresa	67%	32%	1%	-	-	-
42	BUGA SOPHIE	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-
43	KAYGUSUZ Zeynep	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
44	JANEW Anastasia	30%	56%	13%	1%	-	-
45	WILSON Lulu	14%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.