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Morris Cup RYC Reg Open 1/15

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 4:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MAKLIN Edward P.	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
2	MCCARTHY Gabriel	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
3	CHEN Evan P.	7%	25%	34%	23%	9%	2%	-
3	PENG Bryan	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	10%
5	SHIRPAL Oleksandr	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
6	KIM Shaun M.	-	1%	5%	16%	32%	33%	14%
7	FIELDS Matthew S.	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	13%
7	ZENG Noah	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
9	NOURELDIN Gabriel	-	-	4%	21%	45%	31%
10	SAVOY Luca	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%
11	MICLAUS Justin	1%	7%	28%	40%	21%	3%
12	GINSBERG jordan	1%	8%	27%	38%	23%	5%
13	GILSON Lucas B.	-	4%	18%	39%	31%	8%
14	FELDMAN Drew	7%	24%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
15	PENSWATER III John J.	-	4%	16%	30%	30%	15%	3%
16	FLITSANOV Macabee	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
17	BROU Inkosi	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	5%
18	ALTIRS Giorgio	6%	32%	40%	19%	4%	-
19	POSY Daniel	5%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%
20	KOVACH Jonah F.	1%	6%	19%	31%	29%	13%	2%
21	OKEEFE Mitchell	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
22	BERA Enzo	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	25%
23	STERN Tobias	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
24	LUCAS Hayden	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
25	GLOZMAN Justin	29%	46%	21%	3%	-	-
26	ALAVE Kyle	2%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
27	MENDOZA Luca	1%	15%	36%	34%	13%	2%
28	VARUKATTY-GAFOOR Sohil	2%	13%	28%	31%	19%	6%	1%
29	VOSS Jeffer	13%	40%	34%	11%	2%	-
30	PRIMUS Nazir	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
31	DEKA Tanush	5%	27%	42%	22%	5%	-
32	KUSHKOV Daniel	1%	8%	22%	32%	25%	10%	1%
33	FREDRICK Jameer	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
34	MANGAN Daniel Marsh	11%	40%	35%	12%	2%	-
35	CHENG Hong	60%	33%	6%	1%	-	-
36	HAPP Braeden	49%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
37	OH Aster	1%	8%	30%	40%	18%	3%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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