The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

The 2018 Austin Challenge SYC & RCC

Y-10 Women's Foil

Sunday, December 23, 2018 at 11:30 AM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	18%
2	LI Sophia M.	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
3	WANG Jasmine	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%
3	CHANG Elizabeth	-	1%	13%	46%	40%
5	ZHANG Eunice	-	3%	17%	41%	32%	8%
6	KIM Rachel	22%	44%	27%	6%	-
7	CHEN Chloe I.	1%	9%	33%	41%	16%
8	LUH Mia P.	4%	25%	48%	21%	3%
9	WILLIAMSON Reece	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	4%
10	POPOKH Aleksandra	39%	44%	16%	2%	-
11	FAN Lydia	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
12	CHEN Stepnanie	11%	41%	38%	10%	1%
13	XU Audrey J.	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
14	SIKORA Gwendolyn	14%	43%	35%	8%	-
15	MCKINNEY Kara	11%	35%	38%	15%	1%
16	SMITH Kyriaki	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.