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Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KWON Ethan	-	-	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
2	AHN Jun	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%
3	JOSEPH Dominic (Dom)	-	-	-	2%	11%	37%	51%
3	DAI Jonathan T.	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
5	LEUNG Wai Chi Ethan	-	-	-	4%	30%	47%	18%
6	KLOSTERMANN Max	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	2%
7	JIANG Owen	1%	10%	27%	36%	22%	5%
8	ZHANG Henry C.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
9	YEROKHIN Michael N.	-	-	3%	20%	45%	31%
10	LIN Michael	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	1%
11	LEE Aidan	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
12	LAURICELLA Douglas	-	-	4%	22%	48%	25%
13	HORSLEY Alexander	-	-	1%	9%	42%	39%	9%
14	LIN James G.	1%	16%	35%	32%	13%	3%	-
15	LEE Jacob J	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	7%
16	MOHAMED Murad	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
17	RUSADZE Nickolas	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	34%
18	MOHAMED Amir	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
19	LIU Eric Y.	4%	19%	35%	30%	12%	2%
20	ZELJKOVIC Dusan	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
21	PO Oliver	1%	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
22	BROWN Alexander R.	9%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%
23	TSIMIKLIS Yanni	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
24	VALENTON Timothy	1%	9%	34%	44%	11%	1%	-
25	STRAYER Andrew	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
26	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
27	BUCKLEY-JONES Henry C.	4%	29%	46%	19%	2%	-	-
28	TRAUGOT Owen G.	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	1%
29	KLEIN Sebastian W.	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
29	SONG Bryan	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-
31	LANG Dong Lin	-	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
32	GALLUCCI Charles John	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%
33	LEWIS Akhil	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
34	FEDONCHIK Henry J.	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
35	WANG Mason	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-
36	SHADPOOR Ryan	25%	41%	25%	8%	1%	-
37	GARR James D.	2%	13%	30%	32%	18%	4%	-
38	KITAGAWA Eric S.	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
39	BOOTSMA Shane-Anson	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	2%
40	FINLEY Dylan	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
41	KALIPERSAD Neil A.	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
42	POPE Alexander	11%	43%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
43	FRANK Amir	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-	-
44	WANG Winston	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
45	MENG Xiang	75%	22%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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