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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GARCIA Sebastian R.	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
2	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	-	-	3%	18%	46%	34%
3	LEE Jonah	-	-	5%	23%	46%	25%
3	YAO Bradley	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	22%
5	LEE Brendan	-	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	1%
6	XU Andy P.	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	15%
7	NICOLL William	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
8	KIAYIAS Aris	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
9	TANG Terry	-	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
10	LIN James G.	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
11	WANG Jackson	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	5%
12	TIKHAEV Alexander	2%	13%	34%	36%	13%	1%
13	KOVACS Wyatt	-	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
14	UNGERER Roger M.	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
15	SRINIVASAN Vedant	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
16	JIA Jing Yu	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
17	WANG Winston	-	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
18	HUANG Eythan	-	1%	8%	24%	37%	25%	6%
19	SEMAPAKDI-CHANG Kaiden	-	-	7%	27%	41%	23%	2%
20	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
21	WONG Jackson	-	1%	13%	35%	36%	14%	1%
22	XIE Jicheng	2%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
23	XU Ethan	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
24	LIU Ryan	-	6%	31%	40%	20%	4%	-
25	BRAIZINHA Thomas	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
26	ZENG Rick	-	1%	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%
27	CHEN Kyle P.	-	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	22%
28	AKYAMAC Bora	1%	10%	29%	35%	19%	5%	-
29	FOGELSON Hugh	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%	-
30	WANG Julang	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
31	TJON Calum	18%	37%	30%	12%	3%	-	-
32	TOLBA Abdelrahman	-	-	< 1%	-	3%	25%	72%
33	GAO Payton	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
34	HIGGASON Hugh	11%	43%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
35	LEE Eugene	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
36	JURMAN Therin	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
37	CHUNG Ian	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
38	MAO Lucas	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
39	ZHAO Adam	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
40	CHO Xzander	23%	54%	19%	3%	-	-	-
40	GLIAOS Christopher	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%	-
42	BOBROW Silas	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
43	SICAT Justin	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
44	VO Aidan	23%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
45	POLEBOYINA Amrit	57%	38%	5%	-	-	-	-
46	GARR Matthew	45%	43%	12%	1%	-	-	-
46	YANG Jake	< 1%	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
48	TOMAR Dhruv	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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