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Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 25, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Troy, MI - Troy, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Luao	-	-	-	-	-	3%	97%
2	REEVES Liam	-	-	-	4%	46%	50%
3	TANG Owen S.	-	-	3%	19%	43%	34%
3	CULLIVAN Justice	-	-	-	1%	13%	86%
5	LIU Ethan	-	-	5%	22%	42%	30%
6	LEE Lukas	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	14%
7	HAN Derek	-	2%	9%	28%	39%	22%
8	LOGSDON Samuel	-	1%	6%	25%	46%	24%
9	RAJPAL Alastair	-	-	5%	27%	53%	15%	-
10	LAI Twayne	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	4%
11	GUTH Joseph	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	2%
12	SZIRAKI Jordan	3%	21%	42%	27%	6%	-
13	KELLY Tommy	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
14	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	4%	23%	42%	26%	4%
15	REAUME Nate	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
16	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%
17	SENIC Lucas	-	2%	13%	42%	36%	7%
18	MASSIE Otto	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-
19	KNIBBE Nathan	5%	30%	46%	17%	2%	-
20	STRINGER David	18%	47%	30%	5%	-	-
21	EDWARDS Maxon	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%	-
22	MAYNARD Maxwell	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	17%	-
23	TAMIYA Masao	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
24	VANOYEN Dominick	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	-
25	CHUANG Oscar	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
26	ALLEN Henry G.	-	4%	22%	43%	30%	2%
27	DUNLAP Ian	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
28	TOWNE Benjamin	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
29	HEYBOER Jason	5%	28%	42%	22%	4%	-
30	BHATTIPROLU Shrihit	2%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%	-
31	KUE Temujin	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-
32	TATE Liam	-	6%	31%	51%	12%	-
33	FINDLAY Zachary	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
34	NAZARIO Dominic	-	6%	22%	37%	28%	8%
35	MCISAAC Finn	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
36	LATTA Zaiden	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%
37	MAVANI Krishna	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
38	ZMUDA Aiden	18%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
39	LATTA Zamir	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	-	-
40	LIN Vincent	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
41	MARK IAN	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
42	TACK Everett	12%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
42	MANGIONE Alexander	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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