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North Texas Roundup SYC/RCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Monday, September 6, 2021 at 12:30 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHOI Ethan	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
2	NICOLETTI Luca	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
3	CHEN Kyle P.	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
3	MAO Lucas	1%	12%	34%	38%	14%
5	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
5	ZHANG Aaron	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
7	LO Preston	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
8	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
9	YAO Bradley	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	22%
10	NGUYEN martin	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
11	FEDELI Francesco	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
12	WU Alber Y.	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%
13	RUSSELL Paul	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
14	TSAY Jordan R.	2%	10%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
15	GUTH Joseph	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
16	RAJ Jay	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	4%
17	FUKUDA Diego	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
18	DERRICK Blake	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
19	MORROW Brenden	-	-	3%	14%	35%	37%	11%
20	YANG Charles	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
21	ELKOUSY Zain al Din	3%	28%	39%	22%	6%	1%	-
23	CORTRIGHT Skipper	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	8%
24	TWEMLOW Sacha	1%	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
25	YUE Jackson	4%	24%	40%	24%	7%	1%	-
26	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
27	CHUANG Oscar	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
28	CHANG Eric Jonathan	8%	36%	38%	15%	2%
29	CHOI Benjamin	-	5%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
30	RASMUSSEN Sage	-	6%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
31	LING Carson Jr	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	11%	1%
32	LE Jacob	8%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
33	CHANG Jeremy	10%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
34	ALKADI Zain	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
35	CHOI Ethan	8%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
36	ZHAO Nathan	-	-	5%	19%	36%	31%	10%
37	DENG David	3%	21%	41%	28%	6%
38	DHOKTE Neev	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
39	BIELER Mason	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
40	FUKUDA Brando	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
41	PLUMMER Waylon	6%	27%	37%	22%	7%	1%	-
42	YU ShiYu	16%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
43	MORROW Sean	15%	42%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
44	YU Shi Lin	46%	41%	11%	1%	-	-	-
45	POPOKH Luca	34%	44%	19%	3%	-
46	FERNANDEZ Rumi	64%	30%	6%	1%	-	-	-
47	LIANG Ethan	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-
48	MCKEE Calvin	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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