The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Premier Challenge RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, January 23, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Event Center at Valley Forge - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
2	MOHAMED Amir	-	-	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	PLASTARAS Trey	-	17%	38%	32%	11%	1%
3	MOHAMED Murad	-	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
5	MURRAY Maximo	-	-	-	1%	12%	40%	47%
6	GUO Justin	-	-	3%	16%	39%	34%	8%
7	SONG Bryan	-	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
8	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
9	GISLER Benjamin B.	-	1%	10%	33%	39%	17%
10	PITERBARG Maxim	-	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	5%
11	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
12	TSAI Max W.	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	11%
13	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
14	LEE Brendan	-	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
15	LI Aaron	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
16	WONG Jackson	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
17	LEE Jonah	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
18	TRUBETSKI David	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
19	PO Oliver	-	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
20	SRINIVASAN Vedant	1%	11%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
21	DAVIDSON Elliot	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
22	REZA Farazi	-	5%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
23	RADOSLAVOV Ivan-Asen	1%	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
24	CARREYROU Jack	23%	53%	21%	3%	-	-
25	CHEN Kyle P.	-	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
26	NICOLSON William	49%	40%	10%	1%	-	-	-
27	CULHANE Dechen	5%	43%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
28	BROOKS Matthew	14%	46%	31%	8%	1%	-	-
29	MAGALONG William	94%	6%	-	-	-	-
30	BARZOUSKY Gabriel	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-
31	GAO Gary	55%	39%	6%	-	-	-
32	CHEN Jimmy	15%	44%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
33	SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.