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Windy City SYC /RCC #7

Y-14 Women's Épée

Friday, April 1, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Berto Center / also known as Felicity School - Deerfield, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KOZLOWSKI Maya M.	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
2	SWENSON Nikita G.	-	-	-	4%	23%	45%	27%
3	SU Evelyn	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
3	XIONG Angelica	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	3%
5	BECKMAN Ana	-	-	3%	13%	33%	37%	15%
6	HAYNES Antonia	-	2%	16%	41%	33%	8%
7	LEE Olivia	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
8	CAI Yiyi (Phoebe)	2%	15%	33%	32%	14%	3%	-
9	FAN Elizabeth	-	-	5%	27%	45%	22%
10	WATTANAKIT Anda	-	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
11	NIX Reagan	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
12	FERREIRA DE MELO Adriana	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
13	SUN Zeyu	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%	-
14	AI Amy	-	-	1%	6%	27%	44%	22%
15	LI Yuhe	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
16	PATIL Amulya	-	-	3%	22%	46%	29%
17	LI Azalea	-	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
18	MALLAVARPU saanvi	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
19	LEE Camilla	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
20	CHUANG Ramona	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
21	JOSHI Aanika	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
22	LY Hannah	18%	44%	30%	7%	1%	-
23	KUMAR Anusha	-	4%	22%	40%	26%	6%	1%
24	BI Michelle	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
25	NELSON Grace E.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
26	SCHMITT Harper	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
27	BARTOSZUK Camilla	6%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
28	MIRZA Annoshae	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
28	LIN Ariel	2%	13%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
30	WANG Ziqiao	18%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
31	BO GENESIS	29%	44%	22%	4%	-	-	-
32	NGUYEN Ella	34%	45%	18%	2%	-	-
33	GUSKA Jenn	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
34	STERN Savannah	24%	47%	24%	5%	-	-	-
35	MCKENNA Analise	8%	33%	42%	15%	2%	-
36	TANG Ellen	4%	22%	38%	26%	9%	1%	-
37	TANG Elaine	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
38	VARAN Kateryna	4%	23%	42%	24%	5%	-	-
39	HOY Emmarose	7%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
40	ELTERMAN Kate	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
41	MARTINEZ Christina	44%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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