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UBS Sabre Tournament

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 11:30 AM

Nazlymov Fencing - Washington, DC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NASONOV Dmitrii	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	6%
2	TKACHEV Andrey	-	1%	10%	26%	35%	22%	6%
3	CHENEY Christopher (Chris) M.	1%	6%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
3	FERRARA Nicholas S.	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
5	BUKOWSKI Bronson	-	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%
6	BENAVRAM Lev C.	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
7	CHAMBERS Amir E.	-	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	3%
8	HAMMARBERG Stowe	2%	13%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
9	MATT Chris	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
10	NAZLYMOV Tatiana F.	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
11	MOSEYKO Alina	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
12	BELYAEVA Darya	2%	12%	26%	31%	20%	7%	1%
13	VANKOVA Anna	2%	12%	28%	33%	19%	6%	1%
14	SHATALOVA Alexandra	2%	12%	29%	32%	19%	6%	1%
15	VERLATAIA Sofia	-	5%	18%	32%	29%	14%	2%
16	LI Victoria J.	2%	11%	26%	32%	22%	8%	1%
17	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	-	7%	27%	39%	23%	5%
18	PARK Collin D.	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
19	PENTON Robert	-	-	12%	34%	35%	16%	2%
20	ZHOU Kevin	-	3%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
21	TAKEMARU Leo	-	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	7%
22	HANADARI-LEVY Amit	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%
23	MANUBAG Amanda R.	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
24	BRAR Sanjeet	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
25	DUTCHER Theodore	1%	7%	23%	34%	26%	9%	1%
26	ZHOU Brian	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
27	MALNATI Donald H.	-	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	4%
28	LEONARD Cole	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
29	GUBAREVICH Emilia	2%	20%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
31	LIU Yizhe	6%	28%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
32	MAMINA Sofiia	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
33	MOLINARO Lawrence	2%	18%	40%	31%	8%	1%	-
34	CHAN Audrey	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
35	HSU Derek	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
36	NEWMAN Jack	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%	-
37	ELDER John	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
38	ELDER Rhiannon C.	19%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
39	KOSURI Harsha	18%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
40	CARNEY Gabriella	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	1%	-
40	MALYSHEVA Ekaterina	2%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
42	KIM Jeremy Y.	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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