The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Fairfax Challenge Spring RYC/RJCC/ROC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, April 15, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TOLBA Abdelrahman	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
2	MOHAMED Murad	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
3	KNIZHNIK David	-	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
3	JITTAN daniel	-	-	1%	7%	27%	45%	20%
5	KEE Andrew L.	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
6	WANG Winston	-	3%	19%	41%	30%	6%
7	MOHAMED Amir	-	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
8	ORLOV Dmitriy	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	6%
9	JAUME Andrei	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
10	MAO Lucas	-	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
11	GRISWOLD Abel B.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
12	HAN Changhee	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
13	LIU Ryan	22%	44%	26%	7%	1%	-
14	KLYCZEK Andrew	1%	12%	39%	36%	12%	1%
15	HUANG Eythan	2%	15%	38%	36%	10%
16	EMENHEISER Conrad	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%
17	GORDON Jacob	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
18	LEE Jonah	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
19	TANG Albert	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
20	LIGOS Alex M.	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%
21	YAO Bradley	-	7%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-
22	SONG Austin	-	3%	22%	41%	26%	7%	1%
23	YAP Nathan	-	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
24	TANG August L.	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
25	TIKHAEV Alexander	5%	23%	37%	27%	9%	1%
26	LEE Brendan	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
27	STURGIS Zachary C.	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-
28	BERNABE Rafael	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%	1%
29	SUN Henry	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-
30	JIANG Bowang	9%	35%	38%	16%	2%
31	SHEPHERD Conner M.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
32	KANDAGADLA Rishi	42%	41%	14%	2%	-
33	DUSZA Zachery	20%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
34	WAY Kashi M.	-	3%	18%	42%	31%	6%
35	MCKINNEY Isaiah	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
36	LEVY Jacob	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
37	TSAI Caleb	9%	47%	34%	9%	1%	-
38	GRIEB Oliver	31%	52%	15%	2%	-	-	-
39	DUELL Jacob P.	-	< 1%	3%	17%	39%	33%	9%
40	POWELL Sean	44%	45%	10%	1%	-	-	-
41	CHEN Zixuan	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
41	SMOLICH Marat	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
43	JOHN AYI Neville Pascal	19%	48%	26%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.